Seat Projection: Forum Ontario Poll, December 20, 2015

It seems that the short honeymoon for Kathleen Wynne’s Liberal government after Justin Trudeau’s victory is now over.

Last time a polling firm was in Ontario, my model projected a landslide win both popular vote (44% Liberal, 31% PC, 20% NDP, 4% Green) and seat count for the Liberals akin to 2003 and 2007 totals: 70 Liberals, 24 Progressive Conservatives, and 13 New Democrats.

Now, because of the emails scandal, it appears that shine has worn off. A new Forum Poll shows that the Progressive Conservatives are back in first place with 34%, the Liberals are back in second with 31%, the NDP is in an increased third with 26%, and the Greens are in an increased fourth with 7%. Forum’s seat projection predicts 44 Progressive Conservatives, 35 Liberals, and 28 New Democrats.

Here is the seat projection for this poll:
Eastern Ontario: 39% Liberal (8 seats), 38% Progressive Conservative (5 seats), 15% New Democratic (1 seat), 6% Green (0 seats)
Toronto*: 34% Liberal (10 seats), 34% Progressive Conservative (7 seats), 26% New Democratic (5 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
905: 34% Progressive Conservative (17 seats), 29% Liberal (11 seats), 28% New Democratic (9 seats), 7% Green (1 seat)
Southwest Ontario: 33% Progressive Conservative (11 seats), 33% New Democratic (7 seats), 22% Liberal (3 seats), 11% Green (1 seat)
Northern Ontario: 33% Liberal (4 seats), 33% Progressive Conservative (4 seats), 26% New Democratic (3 seats), 7% Green (0 seats)
Total: 34% Progressive Conservative (44 seats), 31% Liberal (36 seats), 26% New Democratic (25 seats), 7% Green (2 seats)

*The 416 and GTA numbers in the Forum poll were combined, since they were available to me.

My projection had similar results to Forum’s. Just like Forum, mine predicted 44 seats for the Conservatives. It predicted a slightly larger seat share for the Liberals with 36. However, the NDP does not take up the remaining seats in my model – for the first time, it has predicted the Greens would pick up 2 seats. However, the next election is not until 2018, so maybe the entire political map will be turned upside down by then.

Seat Projection: Forum Ontario Poll, December 20, 2015

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