Seat Projection: CROP Quebec Poll, December 14, 2015

CROP has come out with another opinion poll on Quebec. It shows the governing Liberals with 37%, the opposition Parti Quebecois at 30%, the CAQ at 17%, and Quebec Solidaire at 13%.

The last pollster in the field was Leger Marketing a month ago, which showed the Liberals with 35%, the PQ at 32%, the CAQ at 20%, and QS with 10%. There has been some movement in favor of the Liberals and QS and some away from the PQ and CAQ, but all of it could very well be statistical noise.

My model projected with Leger’s poll 55 Liberal seats, 50 PQ seats, 16 CAQ seats, and 4 QS seats.

Here is the seat projection for the latest CROP poll:
Montreal: 41% Liberal (34 seats), 26% Parti Quebecois (8 seats), 15% Coalition Avenir Quebec (4 seats), 13% Quebec Solidaire (3 seats)
Quebec City: 33% Parti Quebecois (6 seats), 27% Coalition Avenir Quebec (2 seats), 25% Liberal (3 seats), 12% Quebec Solidaire (0 seats)
Rest of Quebec: 34% Liberal (32 seats), 34% Parti Quebecois (22 seats), 17% Coalition Avenir Quebec (7 seats), 13% Quebec Solidaire (4 seats)
Total: 37% Liberal (69 seats), 30% Parti Quebecois (36 seats), 17% Coalition Avenir Quebec (13 seats), 13% Quebec Solidaire (7 seats)

With these numbers, the Liberals are back in majority government territory with 69 out of 125 seats. However, if the election were held tomorrow, the PQ wouldn’t exactly have a bad night either with an increase in seat count to 36. The CAQ would be virtually cut in half at 13 seats, and the QS would continue their ascent with 7 seats.

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Seat Projection: CROP Quebec Poll, December 14, 2015

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