Seat Projections: Federal Election Polls, December 9-10, 2015

In the last week, three different polls were released about the next Canadian federal election. One was released by Forum, and the other by EKOS. Both project pretty hefty leads for the Liberals post-throne speech.

Forum has the Liberals leading with 46%, 14 points ahead of the Conservatives, who are at 32%. The NDP is at 13%, and the Bloc Quebecois and Greens are bringing up the rear with 4% each. They project 224 Liberal seats, 99 Conservative seats, 14 NDP seats, and 1 Green seat with those numbers.

EKOS has the Liberals also leading with 46%, but a whopping 19 points ahead of the Conservatives at 27%. The NDP is at 15%, the Greens are at 7%, and the Bloc Quebecois is at 3%.

Here is the seat projection for the Forum Poll*:
British Columbia: 43% Liberal (30 seats), 30% Conservative (8 seats), 18% New Democratic (4 seats), 7% Green (0 seats)
Alberta: 71% Conservative (33 seats), 21% Liberal (1 seat), 5% New Democratic (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 46% Conservative (19 seats), 37% Liberal (8 seats), 13% New Democratic (1 seat), 2% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 49% Liberal (88 seats), 32% Conservative (26 seats), 13% New Democratic (5 seats), 5% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 50% Liberal (67 seats), 17% Conservative (4 seats), 16% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats), 13% New Democratic (3 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 56% Liberal (28 seats), 22% Conservative (2 seats), 17% New Democratic (2 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Total: 46% Liberal (225 seats), 32% Conservative (92 seats), 13% New Democratic (15 seats), 4% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats), 4% Green (2 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the EKOS Poll*:
British Columbia: 41.8% Liberal (28 seats), 23% Conservative (6 seats), 21.6% New Democratic (5 seats), 12.5% Green (3 seats)
Alberta: 55.1% Conservative (29 seats), 31.2% Liberal (5 seats), 11.2% New Democratic (0 seats), 2.5% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan: 45% Conservative (11 seats), 27.4% Liberal (3 seats), 14.3% New Democratic (0 seats), 13.4% Green (0 seats)
Manitoba: 52.6% Liberal (12 seats), 23.9% Conservative (2 seats), 13.9% New Democratic (0 seats), 7.9% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 50% Liberal (96 seats), 28.2% Conservative (17 seats), 14.1% New Democratic (6 seats), 6% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 43.5% Liberal (57 seats), 19.3% New Democratic (8 seats), 15.9% Conservative (6 seats), 15.1% Bloc Quebecois (6 seats), 5% Green (1 seat)
Atlantic Canada: 73% Liberal (31 seats), 15.7% Conservative (1 seat), 7.9% Green (0 seats), 2.9% New Democratic (0 seats)
Total: 46.3% Liberal (235 seats), 27.2% Conservative (72 seats), 15.3% New Democratic (19 seats), 6.7% Green (6 seats), 3.4% Bloc Quebecois (6 seats)

*Since Atlantic Canada was not polled, I will leave those three seats with the same party who won it in 2015 for the sake of simplicity.

With both these seat projections, the Liberals have a comfortable supermajority. The Conservatives would be at either a slightly reduced or significantly reduced Oppositio ndepending on the polls. The NDP would also be cut by more than half. The Greens would either be shut out or rebound to 6 seats. The Bloc would remain in the House of Commons but with a reduced caucus.

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Seat Projections: Federal Election Polls, December 9-10, 2015

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