Corporate Research Associates has come out with its quarterly poll of provincial politics in Atlantic Canada (with the exception of Newfoundland and Labrador, which had a general election very close to the polling date). It seems the Liberals, who govern in each of these provinces, have surged to new heights after the federal election. I will do the seat counts for these polls
I will put one caveat on these projections, though: there was no regional data provided, so the projection will not be as accurate without it.
Here is the seat projection for New Brunswick:
55% Liberal (44 seats)
25% Progressive Conservative (4 seats)
12% New Democratic (1 seat)
7% Green Party (0 seats)
1% People’s Alliance (0 seats)
Here is the seat projection for Nova Scotia:
64% Liberal (47 seats)
17% Progressive Conservative (2 seats)
17% New Democratic (2 seats)
2% Green (0 seats)
Here is the seat projection for Prince Edward Island:
61% Liberal (26 seats)
18% Progressive Conservative (1 seat)
11% Green (0 seats)
9% New Democratic (0 seats)
With each of these polls, the Liberals would win with landslides in both popular vote and seat count.
In New Brunswick, the Liberals would have 44 seats, up from the 27 they won in 2014. The Progressive Conservatives would be reduced dramatically from 21 seats to a rump caucus of 4. The New Democrats under Dominic Cardy would get their first seat. The Greens would be shut out of the legislature.
In Nova Scotia, the Liberals would surge from 33 seats to 47. The Progressive Conservatives would decrease from 10 seats to 2, the NDP from 7 seats to 2, and both would be tied for Official Opposition.
In Prince Edward Island, the Liberals would increase their share from 18 seats to 26 seats. The Progressive Conservatives would be reduced from 8 to 1, the only opposition seat in the legislature. The Greens would end up shut out of the legislature.