Seat Projection: ThinkHQ Alberta Poll, December 10, 2015

, The Alberta political horserace is becoming competitive on a three-way level. I do not remember this type of competition ever being seen in Alberta – usually it’s rare to see two parties in the running. However, the latest ThinkHQ poll shows this three-way race in action: Wildrose is at 33%, the NDP is at 29%, the Progressive Conservatives are competitive at 25%, the Liberals have 8%, and the Alberta Party has 3%.

Here is the seat projection using my model:
Calgary: 30% New Democratic (12 seats), 29% Wildrose (8 seats), 25% Progressive Conservative (5 seats), 10% Liberal (1 seat), 5% Alberta (0 seats)
Edmonton: 43% New Democratic (15 seats), 20% Wildrose (2 seats), 17% Progressive Conservative (2 seats), 15% Liberal (2 seats), 1% Alberta (0 seats)
Small Urban: 37% Wildrose (6 seats), 30% Progressive Conservative (2 seats), 22% New Democratic (2 seats), 6% Liberal (0 seats), 3% Alberta (0 seats)
Rural: 51% Wildrose (24 seats), 23% New Democratic (3 seats), 22% Progressive Conservative (3 seats), 2% Alberta (0 seats), 1% Liberal (0 seats)
Total: 33% Wildrose (40 seats), 29% New Democratic (32 seats), 25% Progressive Conservative (12 seats), 8% Liberal (3 seats), 3% Alberta (0 seats)

With these numbers, Wildrose would be forming Alberta’s first ever minority government with 40 seats out of 87. the NDP would be reduced to the Official Opposition with 32 seats. Despite slightly losing ground compared to the election, the PC’s have rebounded from other recent polls and would increase their seat count to 12. The Liberals would increase their caucus to 3 seats. The Alberta Party would be shut out of the legislature.

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Seat Projection: ThinkHQ Alberta Poll, December 10, 2015

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