Seat Projection: Insightrix Saskatchewan Poll, November 10-12, 2015

This past week, a poll on the state of party support in Saskatchewan has been released. This is quite unusual in that polling companies have had a tendency to pass over Saskatchewan in recent years, and it’s the first one since May.

Since May, the Saskatchewan Party has dropped from 58% to 54% and the NDP dropped from 31% to 25%. This was mostly picked up by the Liberals, who have increased from 6% to 14%, incredible considering they got less than 0.5% of the vote in 2011. The Greens are at 6%.

I attempted to make contact with Insightrix, but they did not release to me any regional data, so I can only go on province-wide data with this seat projection:

51 Saskatchewan Party
8 New Democratic
2 Liberal
0 Green

This seat projection reflects the fact that the Saskatchewan legislature has increased from 58 to 61 seats. The Saskatchewan Party would gain 2 seats from 2011, the NDP would lose one seat from 2011, and the Liberals would gain 2. The Greens would remain shut out of the legislature.

If current trends hold, the Saskatchewan Party may be positioning itself to remain a political dynasty for years to come. Alternatively, this may be the last election in which it is likely to win for a few years. Only time will tell.

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Seat Projection: Insightrix Saskatchewan Poll, November 10-12, 2015

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