Seat Projection: Abacus Data Poll, November 25, 2015

Abacus Data has come out with the second poll since the 2015 election, and it shows that Justin Trudeau’s honeymoon period is still in full swing as Parliament is about to reconvene.

Abacus has the Liberals at 49%, twice the support of the second place Conservatives, who are at 24%. The NDP has 16%, a bit of a rebound from the 12% Forum had. The Bloc Quebecois and Greens have 5% each.

Here is the seat projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 42% Liberal (28 seats), 29% Conservative (8 seats), 16% New Democratic (3 seats), 13% Green (3 seats)
Alberta: 41% Conservative (22 seats), 34% Liberal (9 seats), 13% New Democratic (2 seats), 11% Green (1 seat)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 51% Liberal (21 seats), 34% Conservative (6 seats), 15% New Democratic (1 seat), 0% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 54% Liberal (99 seats), 26% Conservative (16 seats), 16% New Democratic (6 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Quebec: 47% Liberal (61 seats), 19% New Democratic (7 seats), 19% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats), 13% Conservative (3 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 66% Liberal (32 seats), 15% New Democratic (0 seats), 11% Conservative (0 seats), 8% Green (0 seats)
Total: 49% Liberal (253 seats), 24% Conservative (55 seats), 16% New Democratic (19 seats), 5% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats), 5% Green (4 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will keep their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

With these numbers, the Liberals would have a supermajority in the House of Commons with 253 out of 338 seats. The Conservatives would form a reduced Oppositin with 55 seats. The NDP would retain Official Party Status but fall to 2004 levels with 19 seats. The Bloc Quebecois will retain 7 seats. The Greens will increase to 4 seats.

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Seat Projection: Abacus Data Poll, November 25, 2015

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