Newfoundland and Labrador: Projections vs. Reality

The model did not do as well as I had hoped for Newfoundland and Labrador. It predicted 30-37 seats for the Liberals, and they got 31. This was within the band.

It also predicted the NDP’s total – the model put them anywhere between being shut out of the legislature and getting 5 seats, and they got 2.

However, it also predicted that the Progressive Conservatives would get between 3 and 5 seats, and they got 7. This is likely a byproduct of the incumbency advantage I put into the model.

I will tweak the model as necessary in time for the elections in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

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Newfoundland and Labrador: Projections vs. Reality

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