Seat Projections: Latest Polls for Newfoundland & Labrador, November 28, 2015

The general election campaign for Newfoundland & Labrador is in its final weekend. Three different polls have come out this week, mostly showing a landslide victory for the Liberals. One is from Corporate Research Associates (CRA), which has the Liberals at 67%, the Progressive Conservatives (PC) at 22%, and the New Democrats (NDP) at 10%.Abacus Data has the Liberals at 64%, the PC’s at 22%, and the NDP at 13%. However, according to Forum‘s latest poll, the landslide might not be as big as once thought. The polling firm has the Liberals at 52%, the PC’s at 29%, and the NDP at 19%.

Here are the seat projections for each poll:

Corporate Research Associates:
37 Liberal
3 Progressive Conservative
0 NDP

Abacus Data:
Avalon/St. John’s: 57% Liberal (15 seats), 25% Progressive Conservative (2 seats), 18% New Democratic (1 seat)
East: 72% Liberal (4 seats), 17% Progressive Conservative (0 seats), 9% New Democratic (0 seats)
Central: 63% Liberal (6 seats), 30% Progressive Conservative (1 seat), 5% New Democratic (0 seats)
West: 78% Liberal (7 seats), 12% New Democratic (0 seats), 10% Progressive Conservative (0 seats)
Labrador: 68% Liberal (4 seats), 19% Progressive Conservative (0 seats), 12% New Democratic (0 seats)
Total: 64% Liberal (36 seats), 22% Progressive Conservative (3 seats), 13% New Democratic (1 seat)

Forum:
Avalon’s/St. John’s: 49% Liberal (15 seats), 31% Progressive Conservative (5 seats), 20% New Democratic (2 seats)
Central: 59% Liberal (7 seats), 25% Progressive Conservative (0 seats), 16% New Democratic (0 seats):
West: 67% Liberal (7 seats), 25% Progressive Conservative (0 seats), 8% New Democratic (0 seats)
Labrador: 46% New Democratic (3 seats), 32% Liberal (1 seat), 22% Progressive Conservative (0 seats)
Total: 52% Liberal (30 seats), 29% Progressive Conservative (5 seats), 19% New Democratic (5 seats)

It seems that even with the Liberals’ lower total in the Forum poll, the Liberals are set to have at least 30 seats. The Progressive Conservatives would likely form the Opposition, and the NDP would be lucky to have a seat after this election’s over. I do not necessarily trust Forum’s results on Labrador since the sample size was only 23 people, and it would be highly unusual for the NDP to surge in Labrador since it did not have any seats in 2011.

However, there still is the rest of the weekend, and only on election day will I make my official predictions.

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Seat Projections: Latest Polls for Newfoundland & Labrador, November 28, 2015

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