Seat Projection: Insights West British Columbia Poll, November 14, 2015

Insights West has come out with a new poll on the state of British Columbia politics – the first in around six months. Previously, the firm had the NDP at 43%, the Liberals at 37%, the Greens at 10%, the Conservatives at 6%, and other parties at 4%. This would have put the NDP at 52 seats, the Liberals at 30, the Greens at 2, the Conservatives at 1, and other parties at 0.

Now, it appears that according to Insights West, both the NDP and Liberals have lost ground to the Greens. The NDP still leads, but at 39%, the Liberals have dipped to 34%, the Greens have risen to 16%, the Conservatives have stayed roughly the same at 7%, and support for other parties remains at 4%.

Here is the seat projection using my model:
Vancouver: 39% New Democratic (13 seats), 38% Liberal (10 seats), 15% Green (2 seats), 7% Conservative (0 seats), 1% Other (0 seats)
Victoria: 37% New Democratic (10 seats), 25% Green (2 seats), 24% Liberal (2 seats), 10% Conservative (0 seats), 4% Other (0 seats)
Rest of BC: 38% New Democratic (26 seats), 29% Liberal (13 seats), 16% Green (4 seats), 13% Other (3 seats), 4% Conservative (0 seats)
Total: 39% New Democratic (49 seats), 34% Liberal (25 seats), 16% Green (8 seats), 7% Conservative (0 seats), 4% Other (3 seats)

With these numbers, the NDP would form a majority government with 49 seats, the Liberals would be reduced to the Opposition for the first time since 2001 with 25 seats, the Greens would rise to 8 seats, and other parties and independents would get 3 seats. The Conservatives would remain shut out of the legislature due to inefficiency of vote.

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Seat Projection: Insights West British Columbia Poll, November 14, 2015

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