Seat Projection: Leger Marketing Quebec Poll, November 19, 2015

Leger Marketing has released a new poll, their first since June. There really has not been much movement. In the last poll, the Liberals had 36%. Now they have 35%. The rest of the parties remain the same: the Parti Quebecois is at 32%, the CAQ is at 20% and Quebec Solidaire is at 10%.

Here is the seat projection using my model:
Montreal: 43% Liberal (34 seats), 27% Parti Quebecois (9 seats), 17% Coalition Avenir Quebec (4 seats), 11% Quebec Solidaire (2 seats)
Quebec City: 35% Liberal (7 seats), 27% Coalition Avenir Quebec (2 seats), 24% Parti Quebecois (2 seats), 10% Quebec Solidaire (0 seats)
Rest of Quebec: 39% Parti Quebecois (39 seats), 26% Liberal (14 seats), 22% Coalition Avenir Quebec (10 seats), 9% Quebec Solidaire (2 seats)
Total: 35% Liberal (55 seats), 32% Parti Quebecois (50 seats), 20% Coalition Avenir Quebec (16 seats), 10% Quebec Solidaire (4 seats)

Despite the relative lack of change in the province-wide popular vote, the Liberals have certainly lost their advantage. The last Leger seat projection had the Liberals at a minority government with 61 seats, now they have 55. Those six seats were taken by the Parti Quebecois, who moved from 44 to 50. This is within striking distance of the Liberals. The CAQ and Quebec Solidaire remain at 16 seats and 4 seats, respectively.

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Seat Projection: Leger Marketing Quebec Poll, November 19, 2015

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