Seat Projection: Ipsos Reid Ontario Poll, November 9, 2015

Ipsos Reid has released a poll this week that has the Liberals in first by a landslide for the first time in months. For most of 2015, the Liberals were suffering from low approval ratings and were even in third place in some cases.

Now, Ipsos Reid has the Liberals with 44%, the Progressive Conservatives are in second with 31%, and the NDP at 20%. The Greens bring up the rear with 4%.

Here is the seat projection using my model*:
Eastern Ontario: 53% Liberal (12 seats), 29% Progressive Conservative (2 seats), 15% New Democratic (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Toronto: 56% Liberal (23 seats), 28% Progressive Conservative (4 seats), 15% New Democratic (1 seat), 1% Green (0 seats)
905: 42% Liberal (20 seats), 34% Progressive Conservative (9 seats), 18% New Democratic (3 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Southwest Ontario: 37% Liberal (13 seats), 31% Progressive Conservative (5 seats), 26% New Democratic (4 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Northern Ontario: 37% New Democratic (5 seats), 35% Progressive Conservative (4 seats), 28% Liberal (2 seats), 0% Green (0 seats)
Total: 44% Liberal (70 seats), 31% Progressive Conservative (24 seats), 20% New Democratic (13 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)

With these results in mind, the landscape of Ontario’s legislature will look a lot like 2003 and 2007. The Liberals would have 70 seats, retaining government for a fifth straight term. The Progressive Conservatives would have 24 seats, remaining in a reduced opposition. The NDP would be reduced to 13 seats after a few years in ascendancy. The Greens would remain shut out of the legislature.

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Seat Projection: Ipsos Reid Ontario Poll, November 9, 2015

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