Seat Projection: CROP Quebec Poll, September 20, 2015

CROP did some polling back in September about the next Quebec election, though it appears I must have neglected it in my daily check for new polls. It has the Liberals at 37%, the Parti Quebecois at 30%, the CAQ at 18%, and Quebec Solidaire at 13%.

Here is the seat projection using my model:
Montreal: 39% Liberal (33 seats), 26% Parti Quebecois (8 seats), 17% Quebec Solidaire (4 seats), 16% Coalition Avenir Quebec (4 seats)
Quebec City: 35% Liberal (7 seats), 30% Parti Quebecois (3 seats), 19% Quebec Solidaire (1 seat), 14% Coalition Avenir Quebec (0 seats)
Rest of Quebec: 35% Liberal (31 seats), 34% Parti Quebecois (22 seats), 21% Coalition Avenir Quebec (9 seats), 8% Quebec Solidaire (3 seats)
Total: 37% Liberal (71 seats), 30% Parti Quebecois (33 seats), 18% Coalition Avenir Quebec (13 seats), 13% Quebec Solidaire (8 seats)

With these results in mind, the partisan landscape of the legislature slightly changes from the 2014 election. The Liberals and Parti Quebecois both benefit from the CAQ’s decline, and Quebec Solidaire increases its total to 8 seats in the legislature.

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Seat Projection: CROP Quebec Poll, September 20, 2015

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