Seat Projection: Insights West Alberta Poll, November 12, 2015

Yesterday, Insights West released a new poll on the Alberta political landscape. It has some constrasts with Mainstreet Research. Unlike Mainstreet, this poll places the NDP in the lead with 33%, and Wildrose remaining in second with 28%. The Progressive Conservatives remain hovering at around 21%. However, compared to Mainstreet Research, the Liberals are so much more in the running – they have 13% support in this poll. The Alberta Party remains at 2%.

Here is the seat projection for this poll using my model:
Calgary: 29% Wildrose (8 seats), 25% New Democratic (8 seats), 23% Progressive Conservative (6 seats), 17% Liberal (4 seats), 3% Alberta (0 seats)
Edmonton: 41% New Democratic (15 seats), 24% Wildrose (3 seats), 15% Progressive Conservative (2 seats), 14% Liberal (1 seat), 0% Alberta (0 seats)
Rest of Alberta: 36% New Democratic (24 seats), 28% Wildrose (9 seats), 26% Progressive Conservative (7 seats), 6% Liberal (0 seats), 3% Alberta (0 seats)
Total: 33% New Democratic (47 seats), 28% Wildrose (20 seats), 21% Progressive Conservative (15 seats), 13% Liberal (5 seats), 2% Alberta (0 seats)

With these numbers, the NDP would remain in a majority with 47 out of 87 seats. Wildrose would take a slight hit, but remain in Opposition at 20 seats. The Progressive Conservatives and Liberals would rebound somewhat with 15 and 5 seats, respectively. The Alberta Party would get shut out of the legislature.

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Seat Projection: Insights West Alberta Poll, November 12, 2015

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