Seat Projection: Forum Poll, November 7, 2015

We are only three weeks out from the 2015 election, and Forum has come out with the first post-election poll. It has the Liberals at an unheard-of level of popularity at 55%. The Conservatives, currently leaderless, are in a distant second with 25%. The NDP, with Tom Mulcair still at the helm, are at a paltry 12%. The Bloc Quebecois has stayed steady around 4%, and the Greens are at 3%.

Forum projects, with these numbers in mind, that the Liberals would have 276 of the 338 seats, the Conservatives would take almost all of the opposition seats with 57, the NDP would be left with a rump caucus of 5, and the Greens and Bloc would be shut out completely.

Here is the seat projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 61% Liberal (39 seats), 19% Conservative (2 seats), 13% New Democratic (1 seat), 6% Green (0 seats)
Alberta: 59% Conservative (28 seats), 33% Liberal (6 seats), 5% New Democratic (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 42% Conservative (15 seats), 38% Liberal (11 seats), 16% New Democratic (2 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 56% Liberal (100 seats), 28% Conservative (17 seats), 12% New Democratic (4 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Quebec: 58% Liberal (70 seats), 16% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats), 13% Conservative (3 seats), 11% New Democratic (2 seats), 1% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 70% Liberal (32 seats), 15% New Democratic (0 seats), 10% Conservative (0 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 55% Liberal (261 seats), 25% Conservative (65 seats), 12% New Democratic (9 seats), 4% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will leave their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

With those results in mind, the Liberals with my model would get 261 seats, less than the 276 Forum predicts, but still a commanding supermajority. The Conservatives would get 65 seats, 34 less than their current total. The NDP would be reduced from 44 seats to 9 seats (mirroring the change from 1988 to 1993). The Bloc Quebecois would hang on to 3 seats. The Greens would end up shut out of the legislature.

Of course, these results will likely not hold. One should never say never, but this is a post-election honeymoon for Trudeau, and his support will likely come down to a stable 35-40% after a few months.

Seat Projection: Forum Poll, November 7, 2015

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