Seat Projection: Forum Ontario Poll, November 7, 2015

Forum has come out for the first time in three months with another Ontario poll. Last time, the Progressive Conservatives had a narrow lead with 35%. The NDP was nipping at its heels with 33%. The governing Liberals were in a relatively distant third with 26%. Bringing up the rear were the Greens with 4%. With those results in mind, Forum projected 54 Conservatives, 34 NDP seats, and 19 Liberal seats.

Now, Forum has the Progressive Conservatives at roughly the same place with 36%. The Liberals have moved back into second place with 30%, and the NDP has gone down to third with 26%. The Greens have gained 2 points and now have 6%. Forum, interestingly enough, still predicts the same seat totals.

Here is the seat projection using my model:
Eastern Ontario: 39% Progressive Conservative (8 seats), 29% Liberal (3 seats), 27% New Democratic (3 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Toronto*: 34% Progressive Conservative (7 seats), 32% Liberal (10 seats), 26% New Democratic (5 seats), 7% Green (0 seats)
905: 40% Progressive Conservative (18 seats), 28% Liberal (8 seats), 26% New Democratic (6 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Southwest Ontario: 41% Progressive Conservative (15 seats), 26% Liberal (4 seats), 23% New Democratic (3 seats), 7% Green (0 seats)
Northern Ontario: 31% New Democratic (5 seats), 31% Liberal (3 seats), 28% Progressive Conservative (3 seats), 8% Green (0 seats)
Total: 36% Progressive Conservative (51 seats), 30% Liberal (28 seats), 26% New Democratic (28 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)

*The 416 and GTA results were combined, since I had the numbers available to me.

My numbers show something pretty different here. The Progressive Conservatives would stay in roughly the same position with 51 seats (though that does move them from a majority to a minority), but my projection places the Liberals and NDP at a tie for second place with 28 seats each. The Greens would remain shut out.

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Seat Projection: Forum Ontario Poll, November 7, 2015

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