Seat Projection: Mainstreet Alberta Poll, November 2, 2015

In the wake of the Canadian federal election coming to a close, polling firms have started to do provincial results again. Mainstreet Research came on the scene with its Alberta election polls in 2015. It has continued to poll in the province after the historic election which brought the NDP to power for the first time and took the Progressive Conservatives out of power after 44 years.

In its first poll, it showed Wildrose with 40%, the NDP in second with 31%, the PC’s with 24%, the Liberals with 3%, and the Alberta Party with 2%. My model projected 37 seats for Wildrose, 32 for the NDP, 17 for the PC’s, and 1 for the Liberals.

In its second poll, it showed Wildrose with 39%, the NDP with 33%, the PC’s with 21%, the Alberta Party with 4%, and the Liberals with 3%. My projection showed the NDP with 40 seats, Wildrose with 39, and the PC’s with 8.

Now, Mainstreet has Wildrose with 37%, the NDP at 36%, the PC’s with 20%, the Alberta Party with 4%, and the Liberals at 3%.

Here is my seat projection using my model:
Edmonton: 55.32% New Democratic (20 seats), 19.15% Wildrose (1 seat), 11.7% Progressive Conservative (0 seats), 7.45% Alberta (0 seats), 6.38% Liberal (0 seats)
Calgary: 37.78% New Democratic (15 seats), 34.44% Wildrose (9 seats), 16.67% Progressive Conservative (2 seats), 5.56% Alberta (0 seats), 5.55% Liberal (0 seats)
Rest of Alberta: 44.32% Wildrose (26 seats), 28.41% New Democratic (9 seats), 23.86% Progressive Conservative (5 seats), 2.27% Alberta (0 seats), 1.14% Liberal (0 seats)
Total: 37% Wildrose (36 seats), 36% New Democratic (44 seats), 20% Progressive Conservative (7 seats), 4% Alberta (0 seats), 3% Liberal (0 seats)

With this projection in mind, the NDP, despite slightly trailing in the popular vote, would retain a majority government with 44 seats out of 87. Wildrose would be in a greatly increased capacity as Opposition with 36 seats. The Progressive Conservatives would hold the potential balance of power with 7 seast if that majority falls.

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Seat Projection: Mainstreet Alberta Poll, November 2, 2015

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