Seat Projection: Abacus Data Newfoundland Poll, November 4, 2015

The first poll during the Newfoundland election campaign has come out, and it has been done by Abacus Data. Last election, the Conservatives under Kathy Dunderdale won by a landslide with 56% of the vote and 37 out of 48 seats. The NDP came in second in the popular vote with 24%, but only got 5 out of the 48 seats. The Liberals got 19%, third in the popular vote, and formed the Opposition with 6 out of 48 seats.

Here is the seat projection using the results of the 2011 election on my model vs. the actual result:
St. John’s: 47.47% Progressive Conservative, 45.43% New Democratic, 7.1% Liberal
Projected: 4 PC, 4 NDP, 0 Lib Actual: 4 PC, 4 NDP, 0 Lib
St. John’s Metro: 63.29% Progressive Conservative, 31.51% New Democratic, 5.21% Liberal
Projected: 6 PC, 0 NDP, 0 Lib Actual: 6 PC, 0 NDP, 0 Lib
Avalon/Burin: 62.87% Progressive Conservative, 19.08% New Democratic, 17.1% Liberal
Projected: 9 PC, 0 NDP, 0 Lib Actual: 9 PC, 0 NDP, 0 Lib
Central: 59.18% Progressive Conservative, 24.49% Liberal, 15.61% New Democratic, 0.73% Independent
Projected: 11 PC, 0 Lib, 0 NDP, 0 Ind Actual: 11 PC, 0 Lib, 0 NDP, 0 Ind
Western/Southern: 51.13% Progressive Conservative, 33.76% Liberal, 14.67% New Democratic, 0.14% Independent
Projected: 8 PC, 2 Lib, 0 NDP, 0 Ind Actual: 5 PC, 4 Lib, 1 NDP, 0 Ind
Labrador: 44.14% Progressive Conservative, 31.45% Liberal, 24.4% New Democratic
Projected: 4 PC, 0 Lib, 0 NDP Actual: 2 PC, 2 Lib, 0 NDP
Total: 56.1% Progressive Conservative, 24.6% New Democratic, 19.1% Liberal, 0.2% Independent
Projected: 42 PC, 4 NDP, 2 Lib Actual: 37 PC, 6 Lib, 5 NDP

Here is the seat projection for the November 4 Abacus Data Poll:
Avalon/St. Johns: 59% Liberal (13 seats), 21% Progressive Conservative (1 seat), 20% New Democratic (0 seats)
East: 67% Liberal (9 seats), 17% Progressive Conservative (0 seats), 17% New Democratic (0 seats)
Central: 65% Liberal (10 seats), 26% Progressive Conservative (1 seat), 8% New Democratic (0 seats)
West: 82% Liberal (10 seats), 12% Progressive Conservative (0 seats), 8% New Democratic (0 seats)
Labrador: 74% Liberal (4 seats), 14% Progressive Conservative (0 seats), 12% New Democratic (0 seats)
Total: 66% Liberal (46 seats), 19% Progressive Conservative (2 seats), 15% New Democratic (0 seats)

With these results in mind, the Liberals appear to be running away with a near-total victory with 46 out of 48 seats, with the governing Progressive Conservatives reduced to a rump caucus of 2 seats. Lucky for the leader of the PC’s, Paul Davis, that seat in St. John’s could very well be his. Unlucky for the PC’s, they would not even have enough seats to have Official Party Status, though the Liberals may grant it out of posterity. The NDP would be shut out of the legislature completely.

However, in Atlantic Canada, local politics moves in ways that quantitative models do not necessarily employ, so these results may end up not being it. Also, this is almost 4 weeks out from the election. We need to see if more polls come onto the scene.

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Seat Projection: Abacus Data Newfoundland Poll, November 4, 2015

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