Performance of Seat Projection Model: Expectations vs. Reality

Well, my model did pretty well for its first election, though it certainly did not estimate everything.

Nationally:
Liberals: Predicted: 146-185 seats, Actual: 184 seats
Conservatives: Predicted: 103-116 seats, Actual: 99 seats
NDP: Predicted: 39-60 seats, Actual: 44 seats
Bloc Quebecois: Predicted: 9-18 seats, Actual: 10 seats
Greens: Predicted: 0-7 seats, Actual: 1 seat

British Columbia:
Liberals: Predicted: 8-25 seats, Actual: 17 seats
Conservatives: Predicted 9-26 seats, Actual: 10 seats
NDP: Predicted 6-11 seats, Actual: 14 seats
Greens: Predicted: 0-4 seats, Actual: 1 seat

Prairies:
Conservatives: Predicted: 43-44 seats, Actual: 44 seats
Liberals: Predicted: 13-14 seats, Actual: 12 seats
NDP: Predicted: 4-6 seats, Actual: 6 seats
Greens: Predicted: 0 seats, Actual: 0 seats

Ontario:
Liberals: Predicted: 77-82 seats, Actual: 80 seats
Conservatives: Predicted: 31-33 seats, Actual: 33 seats
NDP: Predicted: 6-12 seats, Actual: 8 seats
Greens: Predicted: 0-3 seats, Actual: 0 seats

Quebec:
Liberals: Predicted: 20-44 seats, Actual: 40 seats
NDP: Predicted: 13-35 seats, Actual: 16 seats
Conservatives: Predicted: 5-12 seats, Actual: 12 seats
Bloc Quebecois: Predicted: 9-18 seats, Actual: 10 seats
Greens: Predicted: 0-2 seats, Actual: 0 seats

Atlantic Canada:
Liberals: Predicted: 24-28 seats, Actual: 32 seats
Conservatives: Predicted: 2-5 seats, Actual: 0 seats
NDP:, Predicted: 2-3 seats, Actual: 0 seats
Greens: Predicted: 0 seats, Actual: 0 seats

In terms of predictive value, the model got within the range for 4 out of 5 parties nationally, and 16 out of 21 party results regionally. For the ones that were outside the range, they were not out of the range by far, and with 3 of the 5 regional results out of the range, it was due to an unpredictable Liberal sweep.

All and all, it was a pretty satisfying result for the model, and a pretty satisfying result of the election if I do say so myself.

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Performance of Seat Projection Model: Expectations vs. Reality

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