Seat Projections: Nanos Polls, October 14-16, 2015

With election season wrapping up, it appears that the Liberals, barring some major last-minute swing, are going to be forming government. The latest crop of Nanos polls confirms this.

Here is the seat projection for the October 14 poll*:
British Columbia: 31.2% Liberal (13 seats), 29.1% Conservative (14 seats), 27.4% New Democratic (12 seats), 11.9% Green (3 seats)
Prairies: 49.4% Conservative (48 seats), 27.2% Liberal (8 seats), 20.8% New Democratic (6 seats), 1.8% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 47.3% Liberal (81 seats), 30.4% Conservative (29 seats), 18.2% New Democratic (11 seats), 3.2% Green (0 seats)
Quebec: 31.6% New Democratic (35 seats), 30.8% Liberal (24 seats), 20.6% Bloc Quebecois (11 seats), 13.5% Conservative (7 seats), 3.5% Green (1 seat)
Atlantic Canada: 51.5% Liberal (25 seats), 25.3% Conservative (5 seats), 21% New Democratic (2 seats), 2.3% Green (0 seats)
Total: 37.1% Liberal (151 seats), 29.4% Conservative (105 seats), 23.7% New Democratic (67 seats), 5% Bloc Quebecois (11 seats), 4.3% Green (4 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the October 15 poll*:
British Columbia: 31.4% Liberal (13 seats), 30.3% Conservative (15 seats), 27.1% New Democratic (11 seats), 10.8% Green (3 seats)
Prairies: 47.9% Conservative (44 seats), 29.1% Liberal (12 seats), 18% New Democratic (6 seats), 3.6% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 43.5% Liberal (77 seats), 33.5% Conservative (32 seats), 19.9% New Democratic (12 seats), 2.8% Green (0 seats)
Quebec: 31.3% Liberal (24 seats), 29.8% New Democratic (34 seats), 17.4% Bloc Quebecois (9 seats), 16.8% Conservative (9 seats), 4.7% Green (2 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 50.7% Liberal (23 seats), 24.1% New Democratic (4 seats), 21.9% Conservative (5 seats), 3.3% Green (0 seats)
Total: 36.5% Liberal (149 seats), 30.6% Conservative (107 seats), 23.5% New Democratic (68 seats), 4.7% Green (5 seats), 4.3% Bloc Quebecois (9 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the October 16 poll*:
British Columbia: 31.6% Liberal (13 seats), 30.6% Conservative (15 seats), 27.6% New Democratic (12 seats), 10.3% Green (2 seats)
Prairies: 49.3% Conservative (50 seats), 28.5% Liberal (9 seats), 16.7% New Democratic (3 seats), 4.6% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 45.4% Liberal (78 seats), 33.1% Conservative (32 seats), 18% New Democratic (11 seats), 2.6% Green (0 seats)
Quebec: 30.9% Liberal (24 seats), 28.5% New Democratic (34 seats), 17.9% Bloc Quebecois (9 seats), 17.7% Conservative (9 seats), 4.2% Green (2 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 51.8% Liberal (25 seats), 25.7% New Democratic (4 seats), 18.8% Conservative (3 seats), 3.8% Green (0 seats)
Total: 37% Liberal (149 seats), 30.7% Conservative (111 seats), 22.6% New Democratic (65 seats), 4.7% Green (4 seats), 4.4% Bloc Quebecois (9 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will keep their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

With these polls in mind, the Liberals have seemed to find the ingredients to be able to form a secure minority government. Odds are, this minority government, if comprised like this, will last a couple of years with NDP support. Some have said that this may trigger some electoral reform, but only time will tell about that.

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Seat Projections: Nanos Polls, October 14-16, 2015

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