Seat Projections: EKOS Polls, October 14-16, 2015

Just like Nanos, EKOS has had its own daily rolling poll throughout the last week of the election. Just like Nanos, EKOS now has the Liberals leading, albeit with a smaller lead, and in the latest one, not enough to overcome the Conservative vote efficiency. In addition, the Green numbers are going down to levels comparable with other pollsters. Whether this is reflective of a change in methodology, statistical noise, or a genuine decline for the Greens remains to be seen.

Here is the seat projection for the October 14 poll*:
British Columbia: 28% Liberal (12 seats), 27% Conservative (15 seats), 27% New Democratic (11 seats), 15% Green (4 seats)
Alberta: 59% Conservative (30 seats), 23% Liberal (3 seats), 14% New Democratic (1 seat), 2% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan: 46% Conservative (10 seats), 31% New Democratic (3 seats), 19% Liberal (1 seat), 4% Green (0 seats)
Manitoba: 46% Conservative (10 seats), 40% Liberal (4 seats), 13% New Democratic (0 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 43% Liberal (76 seats), 33% Conservative (32 seats), 19% New Democratic (11 seats), 5% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 34% New Democratic (49 seats), 23% Conservative (12 seats), 22% Liberal (11 seats), 14% Bloc Quebecois (5 seats), 4% Green (1 seat)
Atlantic Canada: 55% Liberal (27 seats), 25% Conservative (4 seats), 15% New Democratic (1 seat), 3.5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 33.5% Liberal (134 seats), 32.6% Conservative (115 seats), 22.9% New Democratic (81 seats), 5.6% Green (3 seats), 3.4% Bloc Quebecois (5 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the October 15 poll*:
British Columbia: 30% Liberal (13 seats), 28% New Democratic (12 seats), 27% Conservative (14 seats), 12% Green (3 seats)
Alberta: 55% Conservative (28 seats), 28% Liberal (5 seats), 14% New Democratic (1 seat), 2% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 48% Conservative (21 seats), 28% Liberal (4 seats), 20% New Democratic (3 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 41% Liberal (67 seats), 34% Conservative (41 seats), 19% New Democratic (11 seats), 4% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 30% New Democratic (40 seats), 24% Liberal (15 seats), 23% Conservative (14 seats), 14% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats), 6% Green (2 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 55% Liberal (26 seats), 22% Conservative (4 seats), 18% New Democratic (2 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Total: 34% Liberal (130 seats), 32.8% Conservative (124 seats), 22.7% New Democratic (70 seats), 5.1% Green (7 seats), 3.4% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the October 16 poll*:
British Columbia: 37% Conservative (24 seats), 32% New Democratic (11 seats), 24% Liberal (7 seats), 7% Green (0 seats)
Alberta: 50% Conservative (28 seats), 26% Liberal (4 seats), 20% New Democratic (2 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 46% Conservative (19 seats), 30% Liberal (6 seats), 20% New Democratic (3 seats), 0% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 43% Liberal (69 seats), 34% Conservative (41 seats), 18% New Democratic (11 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Quebec: 26% New Democratic (28 seats), 24% Conservative (19 seats), 22% Liberal (17 seats), 20% Bloc Quebecois (12 seats), 6% Green (2 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 54% Liberal (27 seats), 22% New Democratic (2 seats), 18% Conservative (3 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Total: 33.7% Liberal (130 seats), 33.3% Conservative (136 seats), 21.9% New Democratic (58 seats), 4.7% Bloc Quebecois (12 seats), 4.1% Green (2 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will leave their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

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Seat Projections: EKOS Polls, October 14-16, 2015

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