Seat Projections: Nanos Polls, October 10-13, 2015

It appears that the Conservative dip that revealed itself in the October 9 poll has continued for the week in the latest round of Nanos polls. The NDP appears to have stabilized at 25%, which would be their second-best result if the election were held today.

Here is the seat projection for the October 10 poll*:
British Columbia: 29.3% Conservative (15 seats), 27.6% Liberal (12 seats), 26.2% New Democratic (11 seats), 14.8% Green (4 seats)
Prairies: 46% Conservative (43 seats), 29.9% Liberal (12 seats), 21.5% New Democratic (7 seats), 2.5% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 42.1% Liberal (62 seats), 32.8% Conservative (40 seats), 22.3% New Democratic (18 seats), 2.9% Green (1 seat)
Quebec: 32.1% New Democratic (37 seats), 28.8% Liberal (22 seats), 20.9% Bloc Quebecois (11 seats), 15.9% Conservative (8 seats), 1.2% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 52.3% Liberal (28 seats), 20.4% New Democratic (2 seats), 15.5% Conservative (2 seats), 11.8% Green (0 seats)
Total: 35.1% Liberal (136 seats), 29% Conservative (110 seats), 25% New Democratic (76 seats), 5.2% Bloc Quebecois (11 seats), 5.1% Green (5 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the October 11 poll*:
British Columbia: 29.1% Conservative (15 seats), 28.9% Liberal (12 seats), 25% New Democratic (11 seats), 14.9% Green (4 seats)
Prairies: 47.7% Conservative (46 seats), 26.5% Liberal (8 seats), 24.2% New Democratic (8 seats), 1.7% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 45.2% Liberal (78 seats), 32.7% Conservative (32 seats), 18.2% New Democratic (11 seats), 3.3% Green (0 seats)
Quebec: 32.7% New Democratic (35 seats), 28.7% Liberal (22 seats), 23.2% Bloc Quebecois (14 seats), 14% Conservative (7 seats), 0.8% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 52.9% Liberal (27 seats), 21.3% New Democratic (2 seats), 16.5% Conservative (3 seats), 9.3% Green (0 seats)
Total: 35.7% Liberal (147 seats), 28.9% Conservative (105 seats), 24.3% New Democratic (68 seats), 5.7% Bloc Quebecois (14 seats), 4.8% Green (4 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the October 13 poll*:
British Columbia: 30.5% Conservative (17 seats), 29.9% Liberal (13 seats), 24.7% New Democratic (8 seats), 13.9% Green (4 seats)
Prairies: 45.8% Conservative (47 seats), 26% New Democratic (11 seats), 25.8% Liberal (4 seats), 1.7% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 45.2% Liberal (77 seats), 32.7% Conservative (32 seats), 17.6% New Democratic (11 seats), 3.6% Green (1 seat)
Quebec: 32.6% New Democratic (36 seats), 30.5% Liberal (24 seats), 21.4% Bloc Quebecois (11 seats), 14% Conservative (7 seats), 1.1% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 52.7% Liberal (27 seats), 21.9% New Democratic (2 seats), 21% Conservative (3 seats), 4.4% Green (0 seats)
Total: 36.1% Liberal (145 seats), 29.2% Conservative (108 seats), 24.5% New Democratic (69 seats), 5.2% Bloc Quebecois (11 seats), 4.3% Green (5 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will leave their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

If these projections tell us anything, it’s that the Liberals are currently hitting a seat ceiling of 150. The only foreseeable way to a majority government is an NDP collapse in British Columbia and Quebec.

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Seat Projections: Nanos Polls, October 10-13, 2015

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