Seat Projections: Nanos Polls, October 4-9, 2015

In this latest batch of polls, the new political landscape has become clear. It is now a definitive race between the Liberals and Conservatives, and the NDP has reached its floor. However, the NDP appears to possibly be bouncing back from their October 4 nadir. In addition, the Bloc has bounced back to life after a campaign season looking like it was on its last legs.

Here is the seat projection for the October 4 Nanos poll*:
British Columbia: 34.7% Liberal (19 seats), 30% New Democratic (13 seats), 23.6% Conservative (8 seats), 11.6% Green (2 seats)
Prairies: 46.9% Conservative (45 seats), 29.8% Liberal (12 seats), 17% New Democratic (5 seats), 4.5% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 40.9% Liberal (49 seats), 36.5% Conservative (55 seats), 19.3% New Democratic (16 seats), 2.9% Green (1 seat)
Quebec: 30.1% New Democratic (33 seats), 28.1% Liberal (22 seats), 20.4% Bloc Quebecois (13 seats), 17.1% Conservative (9 seats), 2.9% Green (1 seat)
Atlantic Canada: 50.2% Liberal (24 seats), 26.7% Conservative (6 seats), 17.2% New Democratic (2 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Total: 35.6% Liberal (126 seats), 31% Conservative (125 seats), 22.8% New Democratic (70 seats), 4.8% Bloc Quebecois (13 seats), 4.7% Green (4 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the October 5 Nanos poll*:
British Columbia: 33.7% Liberal (19 seats), 28.3% New Democratic (10 seats), 26.2% Conservative (11 seats), 11.8% Green (2 seats)
Prairies: 49.1% Conservative (46 seats), 30.3% Liberal (13 seats), 16.1% New Democratic (3 seats), 3.1% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 39% Liberal (47 seats), 34.8% Conservative (55 seats), 22.5% New Democratic (18 seats), 3.2% Green (1 seat)
Quebec: 30% New Democratic (34 seats), 28.6% Liberal (22 seats), 20.6% Bloc Quebecois (13 seats), 16.7% Conservative (9 seats), 2.4% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 49.6% Liberal (24 seats), 29.2% Conservative (6 seats), 14.1% New Democratic (2 seats), 5.9% Green (0 seats)
Total: 35% Liberal (125 seats), 31.5% Conservative (129 seats), 23.1% New Democratic (68 seats), 4.9% Bloc Quebecois (13 seats), 4.3% Green (3 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the October 6 Nanos poll*:
British Columbia: 35.1% Liberal (19 seats), 26.4% New Democratic (9 seats), 25.7% Conservative (11 seats), 12.8% Green (3 seats)
Prairies: 49.9% Conservative (49 seats), 28.3% Liberal (9 seats), 18.7% New Democratic (4 seats), 1.7% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 38.9% Liberal (47 seats), 36.1% Conservative (56 seats), 21.4% New Democratic (17 seats), 3.4% Green (1 seat)
Quebec: 29.8% New Democratic (33 seats), 26.5% Liberal (21 seats), 21.1% Bloc Quebecois (13 seats), 18.3% Conservative (10 seats), 2.7% Green (1 seat)
Atlantic Canada: 50.3% Liberal (25 seats), 28.3% Conservative (6 seats), 14% New Democratic (1 seat), 5.3% Green (0 seats)
Total: 34.3% Liberal (121 seats), 32.1% Conservative (134 seats), 23% New Democratic (65 seats), 5.1% Bloc Quebecois (13 seats), 4.6% Green (5 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the October 7 Nanos poll*:
British Columbia: 32% Liberal (15 seats), 28.2% New Democratic (12 seats), 25.8% Conservative (11 seats), 13.1% Green (4 seats)
Prairies: 50% Conservative (47 seats), 25.9% Liberal (8 seats), 22.4% New Democratic (7 seats), 1.6% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 39.7% Liberal (48 seats), 35.2% Conservative (54 seats), 20.9% New Democratic (17 seats), 4.2% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 29.7% New Democratic (34 seats), 26.9% Liberal (21 seats), 22.2% Bloc Quebecois (14 seats), 17.4% Conservative (9 seats), 2.4% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 48.8% Liberal (23 seats), 29% Conservative (7 seats), 17.2% New Democratic (2 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Total: 33.5% Liberal (115 seats), 31.6% Conservative (130 seats), 24.2% New Democratic (73 seats), 5.6% Bloc Quebecois (14 seats), 4.2% Green (6 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the October 8 Nanos poll*:
British Columbia: 31.1% Liberal (15 seats), 30.2% New Democratic (13 seats), 25.8% Conservative (11 seats), 11.8% Green (3 seats)
Prairies: 49% Conservative (47 seats), 26.9% Liberal (8 seats), 21.6% New Democratic (7 seats), 2.5% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 41.1% Liberal (61 seats), 33.7% Conservative (41 seats), 21.7% New Democratic (18 seats), 3.5% Green (1 seat)
Quebec: 30% New Democratic (34 seats), 26.5% Liberal (21 seats), 21.4% Bloc Quebecois (13 seats), 18.8% Conservative (10 seats), 1.7% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 49.5% Liberal (24 seats), 24.2% Conservative (5 seats), 20.9% New Democratic (3 seats), 4.3% Green (0 seats)
Total: 34% Liberal (129 seats), 31% Conservative (116 seats), 25% New Democratic (76 seats), 5.3% Bloc Quebecois (13 seats), 4.2% Green (4 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the October 9 Nanos poll*:
British Columbia: 29.8% Liberal (13 seats), 27.3% New Democratic (11 seats), 25.6% Conservative (14 seats), 14.9% Green (4 seats)
Prairies: 47.1% Conservative (43 seats), 30.9% Liberal (13 seats), 19.3% New Democratic (6 seats), 2.8% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 41.1% Liberal (70 seats), 30.7% Conservative (30 seats), 24.1% New Democratic (19 seats), 4.1% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 31.9% New Democratic (40 seats), 26.4% Liberal (16 seats), 22.6% Bloc Quebecois (14 seats), 16.1% Conservative (8 seats), 1.8% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 53.4% Liberal (27 seats), 19.1% Conservative (3 seats), 17.5% New Democratic (2 seats), 10% Green (0 seats)
Total: 34.8% Liberal (139 seats), 28.6% Conservative (100 seats), 24.9% New Democratic (79 seats), 5.5% Bloc Quebecois (14 seats), 5.4% Green (6 seats)

*Because Northern Canada was not polled, I will leave their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

So The NDP has bottomed out in seat count, and the floor has been set at 68. This is much higher than the Liberals’ floor when the NDP was leading in the seat count. In addition, the Liberals’ vote is quite inefficient at the moment, and it depends on a wide lead in Ontario to win the plurality. If not, the Conservatives will still hold on to first place.

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Seat Projections: Nanos Polls, October 4-9, 2015

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