It has been three months since Probe Research released a poll. In June, the Progressive Conservatives, currently in opposition, led with 46%, the NDP was in second with 29%, the Liberals were in third with 19%, and the Greens had 5%. This led to a seat projection of 38 Progressive Conservatives, 14 NDP, and 5 Liberals.
In the latest poll, the Progressive Conservatives remain in the lead with 45%. However, the NDP and Liberals are now tied for second at 25% and 24%, respectively. The Greens remain at 5%.
Here is the seat projection for the latest poll:
Winnipeg: 35% Progressive Conservative (13 seats), 32% New Democratic (16 seats), 27% Liberal (8 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Not Winnipeg: 59% Progressive Conservative (19 seats), 20% Liberal (1 seat), 16% New Democratic (0 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 45% Progressive Conservative (32 seats), 25% New Democratic (16 seats), 24% Liberal (9 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Despite the NDP’s decline, due to their increase in Winnipeg, the NDP is now able to salvage 16 seats. It’s definitely not enough to maintain government, but enough for a secure Opposition. The Liberals have made inroads in Winnipeg, but very little elsewhere, and that along with a lack of incumbency leads them to have a less efficient vote distribution. The Progressive Conservatives are still highly likely to form government. However, if the Liberals overtake the NDP for second place, and are able to make serious inroads in Winnipeg at the NDP’s expense, they may challenge the Progressive Conservative majority.