Seat Projection: Mainstreet Research Alberta Poll, October 1, 2015

The second poll since the historic 2015 Alberta general election has been released by Mainstreet Technologies, the same company who did the first poll.

Popular Vote in Each Case:
Election: 40.6% New Democratic (54 seats), 27.8% Progressive Conservative (10 seats), 24.2% Wildrose (21 seats), 4.2% Liberal (1 seat), 2.3% Alberta (1 seat), 0.9% Other (0 seats)
First Poll*: 40% Wildrose (37 seats), 31% New Democratic (32 seats), 24% Progressive Conservative (17 seats), 3% Liberal (1 seat), 2% Alberta (0 seats)

*This is a seat projection.

The latest poll has not had much movement. Wildrose has gone down one point to 39%, the NDP has gained 2 points and now has 33%, the Progressive Conservatives declined 3 points to 21%, the Alberta Party doubled its support to 4%, and the Liberals have 3%.

Here is the seat projection using my model:
Calgary: 37.36% Wildrose (10 seats), 34.07% New Democratic (13 seats), 17.58% Progressive Conservative (3 seats), 5.5% Alberta (0 seats), 5.49% Liberal (0 seats)
Edmonton: 56.52% New Democratic (20 seats), 19.57% Wildrose (1 seat), 13.04% Progressive Conservative (0 seats), 6.52% Liberal (0 seats), 4.35% Alberta (0 seats)
Rest of Alberta: 46.67% Wildrose (28 seats), 24.44% New Democratic (7 seats), 24.44% Progressive Conservative (5 seats), 2.23% Alberta (0 seats), 2.22% Liberal (0 seats)
Total: 39% Wildrose (39 seats), 33% New Democratic (40 seats), 21% Progressive Conservative (8 seats), 4% Alberta (0 seats), 3% Liberal (0 seats)

With these numbers, it appears the NDP has a huge advantage in terms of efficiency of the vote. Even while trailing by 6 points, the NDP would still have one more seat than Wildrose, which would secure them a minority government (albeit a pretty short one). The Progressive Conservatives, due to their collapse in Calgary, have had their projection reduced to 8 seats, which would leave them in the balance of power. The Liberals and Alberta Party would be shut out of the legislature.

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Seat Projection: Mainstreet Research Alberta Poll, October 1, 2015

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