Seat Projection: EKOS Polls, October 5-8, 2015

EKOS has now started its daily poll tracking. Its results are different from Nanos in that it predicts a Conservative lead, the Bloc hasn’t resurged, and the Greens have a high amount of support. While it is known that EKOS has overestimated the Greens in the past, it isn’t necessarily an indication of overestimation currently.

Here is the seat projection for the October 5 poll using my model*:
British Columbia: 33% New Democratic (21 seats), 24% Conservative (10 seats), 21% Liberal (6 seats), 18% Green (5 seats)
Alberta: 61% Conservative (31 seats), 18% Liberal (2 seats), 15% New Democratic (1 seat), 5% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan: 53% Conservative (12 seats), 28% New Democratic (2 seats), 15% Liberal (0 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Manitoba: 41% Conservative (10 seats), 33% Liberal (4 seats), 21% New Democratic (1 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 39% Liberal (47 seats), 38% Conservative (63 seats), 17% New Democratic (10 seats), 5% Green (1 seat)
Quebec: 28% New Democratic (31 seats), 28% Conservative (22 seats), 22% Liberal (14 seats), 17% Bloc Quebecois (9 seats), 4% Green (2 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 60% Liberal (29 seats), 18% New Democratic (1 seat), 17% Conservative (2 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Total: 35.1% Conservative (152 seats), 30.9% Liberal (102 seats), 22.2% New Democratic (67 seats), 6.6% Green (8 seats), 4% Bloc Quebecois (9 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the October 6 poll using my model*:
British Columbia: 30% New Democratic (13 seats), 26% Conservative (12 seats), 25% Liberal (11 seats), 18% Green (6 seats)
Alberta: 59% Conservative (31 seats), 19% Liberal (2 seats), 16% New Democratic (1 seat), 6% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan: 49% Conservative (11 seats), 31% New Democratic (3 seats), 16% Liberal (0 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Manitoba: 50% Conservative (8 seats), 33% Liberal (6 seats), 15% New Democratic (0 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 41% Liberal (66 seats), 34% Conservative (41 seats), 18% New Democratic (11 seats), 7% Green (3 seats)
Quebec: 28% Conservative (22 seats), 25% Liberal (20 seats), 24% New Democratic (23 seats), 17% Bloc Quebecois (11 seats), 4% Green (2 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 56% Liberal (27 seats), 21% Conservative (3 seats), 20% New Democratic (2 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Total: 34.1% Conservative (130 seats), 32.3% Liberal (132 seats), 21.4% New Democratic (54 seats), 6.9% Green (11 seats), 4% Bloc Quebecois (11 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the October 7 poll using my model*:
British Columbia: 28% New Democratic (12 seats), 27% Conservative (13 seats), 27% Liberal (11 seats), 18% Green (6 seats)
Alberta: 57% Conservative (30 seats), 20% Liberal (2 seats), 18% New Democratic (2 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan: 51% Conservative (12 seats), 30% New Democratic (2 seats), 15% Liberal (0 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Manitoba: 44% Conservative (10 seats), 37% Liberal (4 seats), 13% New Democratic (0 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 40% Liberal (67 seats), 33% Conservative (40 seats), 19% New Democratic (11 seats), 7% Green (3 seats)
Quebec: 28% Liberal (22 seats), 25% New Democratic (26 seats), 25% Conservative (20 seats), 15% Bloc Quebecois (8 seats), 5% Green (2 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 66% Liberal (30 seats), 19% Conservative (2 seats), 13% New Democratic (0 seats), 0% Green (0 seats)
Total: 34.1% Liberal (136 seats), 32.5% Conservative (129 seats), 21.1% New Democratic (54 seats), 7.3% Green (11 seats), 3.6% Bloc Quebecois (8 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the October 8 poll using my model*:
British Columbia: 29% New Democratic (12 seats), 29% Liberal (12 seats), 26% Conservative (14 seats), 16% Green (4 seats)
Alberta: 52% Conservative (28 seats), 25% Liberal (4 seats), 16% New Democratic (2 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan: 52% Conservative (12 seats), 24% Liberal (2 seats), 20% New Democratic (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Manitoba: 48% Conservative (11 seats), 34% Liberal (3 seats), 13% New Democratic (0 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 39% Liberal (47 seats), 36% Conservative (56 seats), 17% New Democratic (14 seats), 7% Green (4 seats)
Quebec: 28% Liberal (22 seats), 25% New Democratic (27 seats), 24% Conservative (19 seats), 15% Bloc Quebecois (8 seats), 5% Green (2 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 52% Liberal (24 seats), 26% Conservative (6 seats), 18% New Democratic (2 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Total: 33.8% Liberal (114 seats), 33.7% Conservative (148 seats), 20.4% New Democratic (58 seats), 7.2% Green (10 seats), 3.5% Bloc Quebecois (8 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will leave their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

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Seat Projection: EKOS Polls, October 5-8, 2015

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