Seat Projection: Nanos Polls, October 1-3, 2015

Over the last three days with Nanos, it appears that the Liberal-NDP swing voters are now arriving at a consensus on which party they wish to back up in order to defeat the Conservatives. That is not to say that the Conservatives are out of play, because they have a very efficient vote distribution, far more efficient than the other parties. However, it is to say that the road to a Conservative plurality is harder.

In addition, the Bloc Quebecois, previously at their lowest support, has now climbed back up to the 4-5% range. It’s less than 2011, but it’s enough to survive. My model had them still winning seats no matter what, and pretty much every other model had them losing everything.

Here is the seat projection for the October 1 poll*:
British Columbia: 34.1% Liberal (16 seats), 30.5% New Democratic (13 seats), 26.9% Conservative (11 seats), 7.8% Green (2 seats)
Prairies: 49.1% Conservative (47 seats), 26.8% Liberal (8 seats), 21.4% New Democratic (7 seats), 1.8% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 39.1% Liberal (47 seats), 36.1% Conservative (56 seats), 20.3% New Democratic (16 seats), 4.5% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 36.2% New Democratic (47 seats), 23.5% Liberal (12 seats), 19.8% Conservative (10 seats), 17.5% Bloc Quebecois (9 seats), 2.2% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 53.7% Liberal (26 seats), 22.2% Conservative (4 seats), 19.4% New Democratic (2 seats), 4.6% Green (0 seats)
Total: 33.5% Liberal (109 seats), 31.9% Conservative (130 seats), 25.9% New Democratic (86 seats), 4.3% Bloc Quebecois (9 seats), 3.9% Green (4 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the October 2 poll*:
British Columbia: 34.4% Liberal (19 seats), 30.4% New Democratic (13 seats), 23.4% Conservative (8 seats), 11.4% Green (2 seats)
Prairies: 48.9% Conservative (47 seats), 24.4% Liberal (8 seats), 22.2% New Democratic (7 seats), 3.5% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 43.6% Liberal (67 seats), 33.8% Conservative (41 seats), 18.6% New Democratic (11 seats), 4% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 35.4% New Democratic (47 seats), 24.8% Liberal (13 seats), 18.2% Bloc Quebecois (9 seats), 18.1% Conservative (9 seats), 3.1% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 54.7% Liberal (25 seats), 25% Conservative (5 seats), 16% New Democratic (2 seats), 3.2% Green (0 seats)
Total: 34.6% Liberal (132 seats), 30.5% Conservative (112 seats), 25.1% New Democratic (81 seats), 4.8% Green (4 seats), 4.5% Bloc Quebecois (9 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the October 3 poll*:
British Columbia: 34.9% New Democratic (19 seats), 34.3% Liberal (14 seats), 20.3% Conservative (7 seats), 10.5% Green (2 seats)
Prairies: 51.6% Conservative (50 seats), 24.7% Liberal (8 seats), 18.8% New Democratic (4 seats), 3.9% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 44% Liberal (68 seats), 34.8% Conservative (42 seats), 18% New Democratic (11 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Quebec: 32.9% New Democratic (42 seats), 27.2% Liberal (17 seats), 18.2% Conservative (9 seats), 17.9% Bloc Quebecois (9 seats), 3.3% Green (1 seat)
Atlantic Canada: 52.1% Liberal (25 seats), 25.7% Conservative (5 seats), 17.5% New Democratic (2 seats), 3.9% Green (0 seats)
Total: 35.3% Liberal (132 seats), 31% Conservative (115 seats), 24.3% New Democratic (79 seats), 4.5% Green (3 seats), 4.3% Bloc Quebecois (9 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will leave their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

With these results in mind, a few things become clear: the Liberals do have a road to a plurality, and it’s through Ontario. On October 1, the Conservatives had enough of an incumbency advantage to keep Ontario. However, when a lead opens up for the Liberals, that advantage disappears and gives the Liberals a plurality.

However, their vote efficiency is not as great as the NDP’s when they were leading. The NDP has Quebec, and to a lesser extent still has British Columbia. That will be hard for the Liberals to navigate unless they can take away the NDP’s final strongholds.

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Seat Projection: Nanos Polls, October 1-3, 2015

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