Seat Projections: Nanos Polls, September 26-30, 2015

This is the latest round of Nanos polls. In them, a very clear trend is now occurring, and it does not bode well for the NDP. The election has become a two-way race between the Liberals and Conservatives, with the NDP in third. It appears that those who want an alternative to Harper are now coalescing around the Liberals.

Here is the seat projection for the September 26 poll*:
British Columbia: 32.5% Conservative (15 seats), 31.8% New Democratic (13 seats), 27.8% Liberal (12 seats), 7.8% Green (2 seats)
Prairies: 46.7% Conservative (47 seats), 26.1% Liberal (8 seats), 21.3% New Democratic (7 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 37.6% Conservative (58 seats), 35.6% Liberal (43 seats), 23.5% New Democratic (19 seats), 3.3% Green (1 seat)
Quebec: 35.7% New Democratic (43 seats), 27.9% Liberal (17 seats), 18.2% Conservative (9 seats), 16.4% Bloc Quebecois (9 seats), 1.8% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 54.4% Liberal (27 seats), 26.9% New Democratic (4 seats), 13.2% Conservative (1 seat), 4.7% Green (0 seats)
Total: 32.5% Liberal (107 seats), 31.5% Conservative (132 seats), 27.6% New Democratic (87 seats), 4% Bloc Quebecois (9 seats), 3.7% Green (3 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the September 27 poll*:
British Columbia: 34.7% Conservative (18 seats), 33.5% New Democratic (14 seats), 26.5% Liberal (9 seats), 5.3% Green (1 seat)
Prairies: 50.5% Conservative (49 seats), 23.4% New Democratic (7 seats), 20.7% Liberal (6 seats), 2.9% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 38.9% Liberal (58 seats), 38.1% Conservative (46 seats), 19.4% New Democratic (16 seats), 3.6% Green (1 seat)
Quebec: 35.6% New Democratic (43 seats), 26.9% Liberal (17 seats), 17.4% Bloc Quebecois (9 seats), 17.3% Conservative (9 seats), 2.2% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 52.8% Liberal (26 seats), 25.2% New Democratic (4 seats), 15.2% Conservative (2 seats), 5.9% Green (0 seats)
Total: 33% Conservative (126 seats), 31.6% Liberal (116 seats), 26.9% New Democratic (85 seats), 4.2% Bloc Quebecois (9 seats), 3.6% Green (2 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the September 28 poll*:
British Columbia: 36.7% New Democratic (15 seats), 33.2% Conservative (20 seats), 22.9% Liberal (6 seats), 7.2% Green (1 seat)
Prairies: 52.9% Conservative (54 seats), 21.3% Liberal (4 seats), 20.6% New Democratic (4 seats), 3.5% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 38.3% Liberal (46 seats), 35.6% Conservative (56 seats), 21.4% New Democratic (17 seats), 4.7% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 35.1% New Democratic (42 seats), 27.4% Liberal (17 seats), 18.5% Bloc Quebecois (10 seats), 17.4% Conservative (9 seats), 0.7% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 55.2% Liberal (27 seats), 22.3% New Democratic (2 seats), 16% Conservative (3 seats), 5.6% Green (0 seats)
Total: 32.6% Conservative (144 seats), 31.4% Liberal (100 seats), 27% New Democratic (81 seats), 4.4% Bloc Quebecois (10 seats), 4% Green (3 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the September 29 poll*:
British Columbia: 31.9% New Democratic (13 seats), 30.4% Conservative (15 seats), 29.5% Liberal (12 seats), 8.2% Green (2 seats)
Prairies: 50.9% Conservative (51 seats), 24% Liberal (7 seats), 20.8% New Democratic (4 seats), 3.7% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 39.7% Liberal (61 seats), 33.9% Conservative (41 seats), 21.2% New Democratic (17 seats), 5.2% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 34.2% New Democratic (43 seats), 24.7% Liberal (15 seats), 20% Conservative (10 seats), 19.2% Bloc Quebecois (10 seats), 0.6% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 49.2% Liberal (25 seats), 25.4% New Democratic (4 seats), 19.2% Conservative (3 seats), 6.3% Green (0 seats)
Total: 32.2% Liberal (120 seats), 32.1% Conservative (122 seats), 26.3% New Democratic (82 seats), 4.6% Bloc Quebecois (10 seats), 4.4% Green (4 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the September 30 poll*:
British Columbia: 31.8% Conservative (16 seats), 29.6% Liberal (12 seats), 28.7% New Democratic (12 seats), 9.4% Green (2 seats)
Prairies: 49% Conservative (47 seats), 26.7% Liberal (8 seats), 21.4% New Democratic (7 seats), 2.6% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 36% Liberal (44 seats), 35.7% Conservative (57 seats), 22.9% New Democratic (18 seats), 5.5% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 34% New Democratic (45 seats), 23.5% Liberal (12 seats), 21.3% Conservative (11 seats), 19.4% Bloc Quebecois (10 seats), 0.6% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 52.8% Liberal (27 seats), 22.1% New Democratic (2 seats), 21% Conservative (3 seats), 4.1% Green (0 seats)
Total: 32.8% Conservative (135 seats), 31.7% Liberal (103 seats), 26.1% New Democratic (86 seats), 4.8% Bloc Quebecois (10 seats), 4.1% Green (4 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will keep their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

With these five polls in mind, much is clear. The Conservatives are able to maintain a plurality much easier when the Liberals are the ones that are competing with them. The NDP, when it is in the lead, has a much more efficient vote distribution. The Bloc Quebecois is resurging from its doldrums, and the Greens are in a place to stay the same or even expand.

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Seat Projections: Nanos Polls, September 26-30, 2015

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