Seat Projections: Nanos Polls, September 21-25, 2015

I have decided that analysis of the Nanos polls would be more meaningful if I put them into 5 day blocks so that we could see the change in the data. Last time around, there was a consistent Conservative plurality in seats and a slight increase in Bloc Quebecois support.

Here is my seat projection for the September 21 poll*:
British Columbia: 33.4% New Democratic (17 seats), 30.6% Liberal (13 seats), 25.8% Conservative (10 seats), 10.3% Green (2 seats)
Prairies: 48.8% Conservative (49 seats), 23.9% Liberal (7 seats), 20.5% New Democratic (6 seats), 4.3% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 37.8% Conservative (68 seats), 31.3% Liberal (30 seats), 26% New Democratic (21 seats), 4.9% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 39.4% New Democratic (52 seats), 28% Liberal (15 seats), 15.3% Conservative (6 seats), 13.9% Bloc Quebecois (5 seats), 2.1% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 45.1% Liberal (21 seats), 27.8% New Democratic (6 seats), 23.2% Conservative (5 seats), 2.8% Green (0 seats)
Total: 31.3% Conservative (140 seats), 30.3% Liberal (86 seats), 29.4% New Democratic (103 seats), 4.6% Green (4 seats), 3.4% Bloc Quebecois (5 seats)

Here is my seat projection for the September 22 poll*:
British Columbia: 34.8% New Democratic (19 seats), 30.1% Liberal (13 seats), 23.7% Conservative (8 seats), 11.4% Green (2 seats)
Prairies: 50% Conservative (47 seats), 24.5% Liberal (8 seats), 21.7% New Democratic (7 seats), 2.1% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 37.3% Conservative (58 seats), 34.2% Liberal (41 seats), 24.3% New Democratic (20 seats), 4.2% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 38.9% New Democratic (52 seats), 28.8% Liberal (15 seats), 17.3% Conservative (7 seats), 10.6% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats), 2.2% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 47% Liberal (23 seats), 25.7% New Democratic (4 seats), 24.1% Conservative (5 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Total: 31.6% Liberal (100 seats), 31.5% Conservative (127 seats), 29.1% New Democratic (103 seats), 4.2% Green (4 seats), 2.6% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats)

Here is my seat projection for the September 23 poll*:
British Columbia: 34.8% New Democratic (20 seats), 27% Conservative (11 seats), 26.3% Liberal (9 seats), 11.9% Green (2 seats)
Prairies: 44.6% Conservative (44 seats), 27.3% New Democratic (11 seats), 23.7% Liberal (7 seats), 2.1% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 37.2% Conservative (57 seats), 37.1% Liberal (45 seats), 22.5% New Democratic (18 seats), 3.2% Green (1 seat)
Quebec: 41.7% New Democratic (55 seats), 28.4% Liberal (15 seats), 16.6% Conservative (6 seats), 9.4% Bloc Quebecois (2 seats), 1.1% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 46.1% Liberal (21 seats), 30.1% New Democratic (6 seats), 21.6% Conservative (5 seats), 2.2% Green (0 seats)
Total: 31.5% Liberal (97 seats), 30.8% New Democratic (111 seats), 30.5% Conservative (125 seats), 3.7% Green (3 seats), 2.3% Bloc Quebecois (2 seats)

Here is my seat projection for the September 24 poll*:
British Columbia: 34.7% New Democratic (15 seats), 30.2% Conservative (16 seats), 23.9% Liberal (8 seats), 11.2% Green (3 seats)
Prairies: 41% Conservative (40 seats), 27.3% Liberal (11 seats), 25.6% New Democratic (11 seats), 4.4% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 37.1% Liberal (45 seats), 34.3% Conservative (51 seats), 25.1% New Democratic (24 seats), 3.5% Green (1 seat)
Quebec: 41.1% New Democratic (54 seats), 29.6% Liberal (15 seats), 15.8% Conservative (6 seats), 10% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats), 0.8% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 48.2% Liberal (22 seats), 30.5% New Democratic (7 seats), 17.7% Conservative (3 seats), 3.6% Green (0 seats)
Total: 32.3% Liberal (101 seats), 31.1% New Democratic (112 seats), 28.9% Conservative (118 seats), 4.2% Green (4 seats), 2.5% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats)

Here is my seat projection for the September 25 poll*:
British Columbia: 33.5% Conservative (19 seats), 29.5% New Democratic (12 seats), 27% Liberal (9 seats), 10.1% Green (2 seats)
Prairies: 40.9% Conservative (39 seats), 26.2% Liberal (11 seats), 25.6% New Democratic (11 seats), 4.9% Green (1 seat)
Ontario: 36.3% Liberal (44 seats), 34.6% Conservative (51 seats), 25.7% New Democratic (25 seats), 3.4% Green (1 seat)
Quebec: 39.8% New Democratic (52 seats), 27.7% Liberal (14 seats), 17.2% Conservative (7 seats), 12.6% Bloc Quebecois (5 seats), 1.9% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 47.7% Liberal (23 seats), 32.2% New Democratic (7 seats), 15.2% Conservative (2 seats), 4.9% Green (0 seats)
Total: 31.8% Liberal (101 seats), 30.3% New Democratic (108 seats), 29.6% Conservative (120 seats), 4.5% Green (4 seats), 3.1% Bloc Quebecois (5 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will keep their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

With this five day block, some trends are immediately becoming clear – even when the Liberals lead, they do not have a very good vote efficiency. Their major stumbling block is Quebec, where the NDP will likely never lose its lead. However, they may gain more of an advantage if they are seen as the credible alternative elsewhere. The NDP has gained its efficiency in the vote, however it is not enough to beat the Conservatives, who still get a plurality in seat count despite coming in third in certain cases due to efficient vote distribution.

The Bloc Quebecois has dipped back down to lower levels, but it still has a good chance of surviving in the election assuming that the other parties get into a deadlock. The Greens will likely pick up a handful of seats in British Columbia and Ontario if their numbers hold.

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Seat Projections: Nanos Polls, September 21-25, 2015

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