Seat Projection: EKOS Poll, September 22, 2015

EKOS is coming out of left field with their newest poll. For the longest time, polls have predicted a tight three-way race between the Conservatives, Liberals, and NDP, with no one able to break out of the deadlock. However, this poll has the Conservatives with a large lead at 35.4%, with the Liberals and NDP battling for second at 26.3% and 24.5%, respectively. The Greens have a healthy 7.7%, and the Bloc Quebecois has 4.2%.

Here is the seat projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 35% Conservative (23 seats), 29% New Democratic (10 seats), 23% Liberal (6 seats), 13% Green (3 seats)
Alberta: 57% Conservative (30 seats), 24% Liberal (3 seats), 13% New Democratic (1 seat), 5% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan: 41% Conservative (9 seats), 37% New Democratic (5 seats), 13% Liberal (0 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Manitoba: 41% Conservative (10 seats), 30% Liberal (3 seats), 15% New Democratic (1 seat), 11% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 39% Conservative (70 seats), 30% Liberal (29 seats), 20% New Democratic (16 seats), 10% Green (6 seats)
Quebec: 33% New Democratic (44 seats), 24% Conservative (15 seats), 19% Liberal (10 seats), 18% Bloc Quebecois (9 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 39% Liberal (19 seats), 33% New Democratic (8 seats), 22% Conservative (5 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 35.4% Conservative (164 seats), 26.5% Liberal (70 seats), 24.5% New Democratic (86 seats), 7.7% Green (9 seats), 4.2% Bloc Quebecois (9 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will keep their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

If these numbers are indicative of what is really going on in the race, I would be very surprised. No poll before or since in the campaign has predicted this wide of a Conservative lead. This result is likely just a fluke.

However, it does say something major – even if the Conservatives have the best night they can possibly envision, they will not serve another full term in government. None of the other seat-winning parties will even remotely entertain entering into a coalition with the Conservatives. If a coalition happens, it will likely be the other parties against the Conservatives, but that is unlikely as well due to various structural issues preventing coalitions from being a good idea for the minor parties. The best the Conservatives would have to hope for is another minority government.

Seat Projection: EKOS Poll, September 22, 2015

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