Seat Projections: Nanos Polls, September 18-20, 2015

The fluctuation that has dominated the last 2 weeks of Nanos polling has stabilized. Now it’s a narrow fight between the Conservatives and Liberals with the NDP in a remarkably close third.

Here is the seat projection for the September 18 poll*:
British Columbia: 31.4% Conservative (17 seats), 27.3% Liberal (11 seats), 26.7% New Democratic (11 seats), 12.4% Green (3 seats)
Prairies: 54% Conservative (54 seats), 19.8% New Democratic (4 seats), 19.7% Liberal (4 seats), 5.3% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 41.4% Liberal (67 seats), 32.9% Conservative (40 seats), 19.6% New Democratic (12 seats), 5.7% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 47.7% New Democratic (63 seats), 20.8% Liberal (8 seats), 14.4% Conservative (4 seats), 12% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats), 4.2% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic: 50.7% Liberal (23 seats), 31.7% New Democratic (7 seats), 14.7% Conservative (2 seats), 2.9% Green (0 seats)
Total: 30.8% Liberal (113 seats), 30.4% Conservative (119 seats), 28.9% New Democratic (98 seats), 6% Green (5 seats), 3% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the September 19 poll*:
British Columbia: 35.3% Conservative (21 seats), 30.8% New Democratic (13 seats), 23.1% Liberal (6 seats), 9.6% Green (2 seats)
Prairies: 50.5% Conservative (51 seats), 23.4% Liberal (7 seats), 19.3% New Democratic (4 seats), 5.5% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 37.3% Liberal (45 seats), 36% Conservative (60 seats), 21.1% New Democratic (17 seats), 5% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 45.7% New Democratic (62 seats), 22.5% Liberal (9 seats), 15% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats), 12% Conservative (3 seats), 3.7% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic: 53.3% Liberal (24 seats), 29% New Democratic (5 seats), 15.9% Conservative (3 seats), 1.9% Green (0 seats)
Total: 30.8% Conservative (140 seats), 30.3% Liberal (91 seats), 29.1% New Democratic (99 seats), 5.1% Green (4 seats), 3.7% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the September 20 poll*:
British Columbia: 31.9% New Democratic (13 seats). 31.8% Conservative (19 seats), 24.8% Liberal (8 seats), 9.9% Green (2 seats)
Prairies: 49.1% Conservative (48 seats), 22.7% Liberal (7 seats), 19.6% New Democratic (6 seats), 6.5% Green (1 seat)
Ontario: 35.5% Conservative (57 seats), 34.5% Liberal (42 seats), 24.4% New Democratic (20 seats), 5.4% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 41.2% New Democratic (54 seats), 24.5% Liberal (13 seats), 15.5% Bloc Quebecois (6 seats), 14.1% Conservative (5 seats), 3.4% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic: 46.2% Liberal (21 seats), 28.5% New Democratic (6 seats), 21.8% Conservative (5 seats), 2.3% Green (0 seats)
Total: 31% Conservative (136 seats), 29.4% Liberal (91 seats), 29.1% New Democratic (100 seats), 5.5% Green (5 seats), 3.8% Bloc Quebecois (6 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will keep their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

From these polls, one might extrapolate a trend towards a stable Conservative plurality in seat count with the NDP and Liberals competing for second. However, the regional data shows more bubbling under the surface.

In British Columbia, the province in which the NDP once predominated is now in play for all three parties. In the Prairies, the NDP and Liberals are battling it out for second where the NDP once had decisive status as the alternative to the Conservatives. In Ontario, the former three-way race has now become a competition between Liberals and Conservatives. In Quebec, NDP dominance has held, with the Bloc Quebecois rising slightly from the dead, and in Atlantic Canada, Liberal dominance has held.

My personal prediction is that the Conservative plurality will not necessarily hold. However, it is unclear whether the Liberals or NDP will triumph. For the pool of voters the Liberals and NDP take from, establishing who is the clear alternative to Harper is crucial. If one party emerges (and so far neither have) as the alternative, much of the soft support of one party will go to the other in a tactical move. It remains to be seen which party this is, or if such a decision can be made in time.

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Seat Projections: Nanos Polls, September 18-20, 2015

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