Seat Projection: Ipsos Reid Poll, September 20, 2015

Last time Ipsos Reid was in the field, they predicted a very tight three way race – the NDP with 32%, the Liberals with 31%, and the Conservatives with 29%, with the Bloc Quebecois and Greens claiming 4% each. This translated seat-wise into 113 Liberals, 110 NDP, 105 Conservatives, 7 Bloc, and 3 Greens.

The Liberals in the latest Ipsos Reid poll are now first place in the popular vote with 33%. The NDP has taken a slight dip to 30%, and the Conservatives remain in third, albeit a slightly more distant one, at 27%. The Bloc Quebecois has gained one point and is now at 5%, and the Greens remain at 4%.

Here is the seat projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 36% New Democratic (21 seats), 28% Conservative (12 seats), 24% Liberal (7 seats), 10% Green (2 seats)
Alberta: 39% Conservative (19 seats), 31% New Democratic (8 seats), 29% Liberal (7 seats), 1% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 44% Conservative (19 seats), 34% New Democratic (6 seats), 21% Liberal (3 seats), 1% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 41% Liberal (62 seats), 32% Conservative (39 seats), 24% New Democratic (19 seats), 3% Green (1 seat)
Quebec: 37% New Democratic (49 seats), 24% Liberal (12 seats), 23% Bloc Quebecois (12 seats), 13% Conservative (5 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 49% Liberal (23 seats), 30% New Democratic (6 seats), 18% Conservative (3 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Total: 33% Liberal (114 seats), 30% New Democratic (110 seats), 27% Conservative (99 seats), 5% Bloc Quebecois (12 seats), 4% Green (3 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will keep their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

With these numbers, unlike Nanos and Forum, the three way race continues – the Liberals and NDP largely maintain, but the Conservatives have dropped to 99 in the projection. The Bloc Quebecois has a notable gain in that it’s projected to return to Official Party Status, a projection that has not previously happened in this campaign.

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Seat Projection: Ipsos Reid Poll, September 20, 2015

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