Seat Projection: Forum Poll, September 18, 2015

In Forum’s last poll, the Conservatives had their first plurality in the campaign at 32%. The NDP was shown to be in second with 30% and the Liberals in third with 28%. The Greens and Bloc Quebecois had 6% and 4%, respectively. My model translated this into 146 seats for the Conservatives, 106 for the NDP, 78 for the Liberals, 5 for the Bloc Quebecois, and 3 for the Greens.

In this poll, the Conservatives remain in first with 33%. However, the Liberals and NDP are tied for second place at 29%. The Greens have declined 2 points to 4%, and the Bloc remains at 4%.

Here is the seat projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 36% Conservative (20 seats), 34% Liberal (14 seats), 21% New Democratic (6 seats), 8% Green (2 seats)
Alberta: 57% Conservative (30 seats), 24% New Democratic (3 seats), 15% Liberal (1 seat), 4% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 37% Conservative (15 seats), 33% Liberal (9 seats), 23% New Democratic (4 seats), 7% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 35% Conservative (58 seats), 34% Liberal (41 seats), 25% New Democratic (20 seats), 5% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 38% New Democratic (50 seats), 24% Conservative (12 seats), 22% Liberal (11 seats), 14% Bloc Quebecois (5 seats), 0% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 44% Liberal, 38% New Democratic (10 seats), 14% Conservative (2 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Total: 33% Conservative (139 seats), 29% Liberal (96 seats), 29% New Democratic (94 seats), 4% Bloc Quebecois (5 seats), 4% Green (4 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, their seats will remain with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

The Conservatives have a clear plurality here with 139 seats, and the Liberals and NDP are at a virtual tie for second in seat count. However, this may not be a sign that the Conservatives are regaining in popularity. Just like how the Nanos polls show, there is a significant amount of upheaval going on at the regional level between voters who are not supporting the Conservatives. This is likely a restructuring period in which voters will slowly get behind either the Liberals or NDP as a means to win against the Conservatives, who currently have a formidable seat distribution advantage.

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Seat Projection: Forum Poll, September 18, 2015

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