Seat Projection: Nanos Poll, September 17, 2015

The latest Nanos poll continues the fluctuation between the NDP, Liberals, and Conservatives for first place. The race is so close, that only 1.4 points separate the first and third place finisher.

Yesterday, the Liberals led with 30.9%, the NDP was in second with 30.4%, the Conservatives were in third with 30.1%, the Greens had 5.8%, and the Bloc Quebecois was at 2.5%. This translated seat-wise into 116 for the Conservatives, 113 for the Liberals, 101 for the NDP, 5 for the Greens, and 3 for the Bloc Quebecois.

Today, the NDP leads with 31.3%, the Liberals are in a close second with 31%, the Conservatives are in third with 29.1%, the Greens remain at 5.8%, and the Bloc Quebecois dips slightly to 2.3%, their worst poll in history.

Here is the seat projection for today’s numbers using my model*:
British Columbia: 30.8% New Democratic (13 seats), 29.3% Conservative (14 seats), 28.6% Liberal (12 seats), 10.6% Green (3 seats)
Prairies: 50.2% Conservative (50 seats), 25.6% New Democratic (8 seats), 19% Liberal (4 seats), 4.8% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 39.6% Liberal (62 seats), 32.3% Conservative (39 seats), 21.6% New Democratic (17 seats), 6.3% Green (3 seats)
Quebec: 47.8% New Democratic (63 seats), 23.5% Liberal (9 seats), 14.7% Conservative (4 seats), 9.2% Bloc Quebecois (2 seats), 3.7% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 51.3% Liberal (23 seats), 32% New Democratic (7 seats), 12.1% Conservative (2 seats), 4.6% Green (0 seats)
Total: 31.3% New Democratic (109 seats), 31% Liberal (110 seats), 29.1% Conservative (111 seats), 5.8% Green (6 seats), 2.3% Bloc Quebecois (2 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will keep their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

With this projection, the race is so close that no party even approaches a third of the seats. The Conservatives are in first with 111, the Liberals are in second with 110, and the NDP is in third with 109. The Greens and Bloc have 6 and 2 seats, respectively.

To put in perspective how close this balance is, one by-election could change the order of the parties in the legislature. One by-election where a Conservative seat becomes Liberal could mean the Liberals become the largest party. One by-election where a Liberal seat becomes NDP means that the NDP is now the second-largest party. One by-election where a Conservative seat becomes NDP means that the three parties are tied. One by-election where an NDP seat becomes Liberal ties the Liberals and Conservatives. If these numbers hold, then we will undoubtedly see an election again real soon.

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Seat Projection: Nanos Poll, September 17, 2015

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