Seat Projection: Nanos Polls, September 15-16, 2015

In the last installment of my projections on Nanos polls, a very interesting thing happened: the order of the first, second, and third-place parties changed each time. The trend continues with the September 15 and September 16 Nanos polls.Here is my projection for the September 15 poll*:
British Columbia: 36.2% New Democratic (15 seats), 31.6% Conservative (17 seats), 23.1% Liberal (8 seats), 9.1% Green (2 seats)
Prairies: 49.6% Conservative (50 seats), 24.3% New Democratic (8 seats), 18.7% Liberal (4 seats), 5.8% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 36.2% Liberal (61 seats), 31.1% Conservative (38 seats), 25% New Democratic (20 seats), 5.7% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 42.2% New Democratic (55 seats), 29.6% Liberal (15 seats), 13.5% Conservative (5 seats), 11.2% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats), 2.3% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 46.9% Liberal (22 seats), 32.2% New Democratic (7 seats), 15.7% Conservative (3 seats), 5.2% Green (0 seats)
Total: 31.6% New Democratic (106 seats), 30.1% Liberal (110 seats), 29% Conservative (115 seats), 5.3% Green (4 seats), 2.8% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats)

Here is my projection for the September 16 poll*:
British Columbia: 33.6% New Democratic (14 seats), 30.2% Conservative (15 seats), 26.8% Liberal (11 seats), 8.7% Green (2 seats)
Prairies: 55.8% Conservative (54 seats), 22.1% New Democratic (5 seats), 16.3% Liberal (3 seats), 5.6% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 40.1% Liberal (62 seats), 31.6% Conservative (38 seats), 22% New Democratic (18 seats), 6.3% Green (3 seats)
Quebec: 45.1% New Democratic (56 seats), 26.9% Liberal (14 seats), 14.1% Conservative (5 seats), 10.2% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats), 3.1% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 48% Liberal (23 seats), 31.8% New Democratic (7 seats), 13.7% Conservative (2 seats), 6.5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 30.9% Liberal (113 seats), 30.4% New Democratic (101 seats), 30.1% Conservative (116 seats), 5.8% Green (5 seats), 2.5% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will keep their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

The race is far too tight to tell, but it’s a good indicator of how efficient each party’s vote distribution is at 30% – the Conservatives have the most efficient and the NDP the least.

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Seat Projection: Nanos Polls, September 15-16, 2015

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