Seat Projection: Forum Poll, September 15, 2015

A cataclysm has happened in the Forum poll – since June, it has pegged the NDP to have the lead spot, and in certain polls, the governing Conservatives have even been in a distant third place. Now, in the latest poll, the Conservatives are leading with 32%, the NDP is in second with 30%, and the NDP has 28%.

In the last poll, the NDP was projected to have 142 seats, the Conservatives 100, the Liberals 91, the Bloc Quebecois 3, and the Greens 2.

Here is the latest seat projection using my algorithm*:
British Columbia: 38% New Democratic (23 seats), 29% Conservative (12 seats), 24% Liberal (7 seats), 7% Green (0 seats)
Alberta: 52% Conservative (30 seats), 22% New Democratic (2 seats), 20% Liberal (2 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 42% Conservative (18 seats), 28% New Democratic (5 seats), 27% Liberal (5 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 37% Conservative (69 seats), 31% Liberal (30 seats), 24% New Democratic (19 seats), 7% Green (3 seats)
Quebec: 38% New Democratic (50 seats), 25% Liberal (13 seats), 20% Conservative (10 seats), 13% Bloc Quebecois (5 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 45% Liberal (21 seats), 26% New Democratic (6 seats), 24% Conservative (5 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Total: 32% Conservative (146 seats), 30% New Democratic (106 seats), 28% Liberal (78 seats), 6% Green (3 seats), 4% Bloc Quebecois (5 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I am going to keep their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

The pendulum has swung again in the Conservatives’ favor. The NDP has been relegated to roughly the same position as its Official Opposition days. However, there is still room for change, other polls have predicted a myriad of results in this phase of the election cycle.

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Seat Projection: Forum Poll, September 15, 2015

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