Seat Projection: Nanos Research Polls, September 12-14, 2015

First off, my apologies for not keeping up with the daily Nanos polls. It has been a hectic few days.

On their September 11 poll, Nanos had the Liberals at 31.7%, the Conservatives with 30.9%, the New Democrats with 30.1%, the Greens with 4%, and the Bloc Quebecois with 2.8%. My model translated this into 116 Conservative seats, 111 Liberal seats, 105 New Democratic seats, and 3 Green and Bloc seats each.

Here is the projection for the September 12 Nanos poll using my model*:
British Columbia: 37.1% New Democratic (21 seats), 29.6% Conservative (12 seats), 24.5% Liberal (7 seats), 8.5% Green (2 seats)
Prairies: 51% Conservative (50 seats), 27.3% Liberal (8 seats), 18.1% New Democratic (4 seats), 2.7% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 35.9% Conservative (57 seats), 35.5% Liberal (43 seats), 24.5% New Democratic (20 seats), 3.9% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 45.4% New Democratic (59 seats), 25.1% Liberal (10 seats), 16.5% Conservative (6 seats), 9.9% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats), 2.6% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 43.8% Liberal (21 seats), 30.6% New Democratic (7 seats), 20.4% Conservative (4 seats), 4.9% Green (0 seats)
Total: 31.7% Conservative (131 seats), 30.8% New Democratic (112 seats), 30.5% Liberal (88 seats), 4.1% Green (4 seats), 2.5% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats)

Here is the projection for the September 13 Nanos poll using my model*:
British Columbia: 36.9% New Democratic (21 seats), 29.1% Conservative (12 seats), 24.2% Liberal (7 seats), 9.8% Green (2 seats)
Prairies: 44.6% Conservative (44 seats), 27.6% Liberal (11 seats), 21.7% New Democratic (7 seats), 4.6% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 36.1% Conservative (59 seats), 32.7% Liberal (40 seats), 25.7% New Democratic (21 seats), 3.3% Green (1 seat)
Quebec: 42.4% New Democratic (54 seats), 28.3% Liberal (15 seats), 15.7% Conservative (6 seats), 10.7% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats), 1.5% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 43% Liberal (21 seats), 30.8% New Democratic (7 seats), 21% Conservative (4 seats), 4.8% Green (0 seats)
Total: 31.3% New Democratic (111 seats), 30.3% Liberal (94 seats), 30.2% Conservative (127 seats), 4.3% Green (3 seats), 2.6% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats)

Here is the projection for the September 14 Nanos poll using my model*:
British Columbia: 35.3% New Democratic (15 seats), 34.4% Conservative (19 seats), 21.9% Liberal (6 seats), 8.5% Green (2 seats)
Prairies: 50.3% Conservative (51 seats), 22.8% Liberal (7 seats), 19.4% New Democratic (4 seats), 5.8% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 34.3% Conservative (52 seats), 32.8% Liberal (40 seats), 26.5% New Democratic (26 seats), 4.5% Green (3 seats)
Quebec: 41.8% New Democratic (54 seats), 29.1% Liberal (15 seats), 14.4% Bloc Quebecois (6 seats), 11.8% Conservative (3 seats), 2.1% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 47.3% Liberal (22 seats), 29% New Democratic (6 seats), 18.7% Conservative (4 seats), 5.1% Green (0 seats)
Total: 31% Conservative (131 seats), 30.4% New Democratic (106 seats), 29.6% Liberal (90 seats), 4.8% Green (5 seats), 2.9% Bloc Quebecois (6 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will keep their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

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Seat Projection: Nanos Research Polls, September 12-14, 2015

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