Seat Projection: Ipsos Reid Poll, September 13, 2015

Ipsos Reid has released a new poll, and it shows how different the field is from last time. Last time, the polling firm had the NDP at 34%, the Liberals at 30%, the Conservatives at 29%, and the Bloc Quebecois and Greens with 3% each. With these numbers, my model predicted 126 seats for the NDP, 112 for the Conservatives, 96 for the Liberals, 4 for the Bloc, and 0 for the Greens.

Now, the numbers reflect a tighter race: the NDP is still in the lead with 32%, but the Liberals are nipping at their heels with 31%, and the Conservatives remain at 29%. The Bloc and Greens have 4% each.

Here are my numbers for this week’s finding*:
British Columbia: 35% Conservative (20 seats), 34% New Democratic (14 seats), 25% Liberal (7 seats), 6% Green (1 seat)
Alberta: 45% Conservative (24 seats), 31% New Democratic (7 seats), 18% Liberal (3 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 35% Conservative (13 seats), 34% New Democratic (10 seats), 25% Liberal (5 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 37% Liberal (59 seats), 31% Conservative (38 seats), 27% New Democratic (22 seats), 5% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 38% New Democratic (51 seats), 26% Liberal (14 seats), 17% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats), 16% Conservative (6 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 55% Liberal (25 seats), 29% New Democratic (5 seats), 15% Conservative (2 seats), 1% Green (0 seats)
Total: 32% New Democratic (110 seats), 31% Liberal (113 seats), 29% Conservative (105 seats), 4% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats), 4% Green (3 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will keep their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

The seats also reflect the new reality of the field – it’s far too close to call. The Liberals have a plurality with 113 seats, an increase of 17, the NDP has 110, a decrease of 16, the Conservatives have 105, a decrease of 7, the Bloc has 7, an increase of 3, and the Greens have 3, an increase of 3. With these numbers, there is no kingmaker here – if an election produced this seat count, we may be seeing another election real soon.

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Seat Projection: Ipsos Reid Poll, September 13, 2015

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