Seat Projection: Abacus Data, September 11, 2015

Abacus Data is back in the field with another poll. Last time around, there was a tight three-way race, with the NDP leading at 31%, the Conservatives in second with 30%, and the Liberals in third with 28%. The Greens had 7% and the Bloc Quebecois had 3%. This translated into 126 seats for the Conservatives, 115 for the NDP, 85 for the Liberals, 9 for the Greens, and 3 for the Bloc Quebecois.

Now, the NDP is still in the lead with 31%. However, the race for a tight second is in a dead heat with the Conservatives and Liberals both both at 29%. The Greens dropped one point to 6%, and the Bloc has gone up one point to 4%.

Here is this poll’s projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 35% New Democratic (19 seats), 30% Conservative (13 seats), 30% Liberal (10 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Alberta: 49% Conservative (26 seats), 24% New Democratic (4 seats), 22% Liberal (4 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 41% Conservative (19 seats), 31% Liberal (6 seats), 21% New Democratic (3 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 36% Conservative (59 seats), 33% Liberal (40 seats), 25% New Democratic (20 seats), 6% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 47% New Democratic (61 seats), 22% Liberal (9 seats), 14% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats), 10% Conservative (3 seats), 6% Green (1 seat)
Atlantic Canada: 48% Liberal (24 seats), 24% New Democratic (4 seats), 19% Conservative (4 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Total: 31% New Democratic (112 seats), 29% Conservative (126 seats), 29% Liberal (93 seats), 6% Green (3 seats), 4% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats)

The Conservatives remain with a plurality at 126 seats. However, the NDP is down 5 seats and the Liberals are up 8. The Greens are down 6, and the Bloc is up 1. It seems that Liberal support is consolidating in the Prairies in Ontario as the alternative to the Conservatives, and the Conservatives have been able to play to their strengths (Alberta through Ontario). The NDP is losing grip on its lead.

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Seat Projection: Abacus Data, September 11, 2015

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