Seat Projection: Nanos Poll, September 11, 2015

Nanos has released their daily poll this morning, and it has widened the race, if only slightly. Yesterday, the Liberals had 30.9%, the Conservatives had 30.8%, and the NDP had 29.9%, a gap of one point well within a statistical tie. The Greens had 4.6%, and the Bloc Quebecois had 3.2%. This translated into 119 seats for the Conservatives, 112 for the Liberals, 100 for the NDP, 4 for the Greens, and 3 for the Bloc.

Today, the Liberals remain in the lead with 31.7%, with the Conservatives and NDP following close behind with 30.9% and 30.1%, respectively. This puts the difference at 1.6%, also still within a statistical tie. The Greens have declined somewhat to 4.0%, and the Bloc Quebecois has declined to 2.8%, a low it has not seen since a Nanos poll on May 29, 2011.

Here is today’s seat projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 34.9% New Democratic (15 seats), 30.6% Conservative (15 seats), 27.1% Liberal (11 seats), 7% Green (1 seat)
Prairies: 54.1% Conservative (50 seats), 24.7% Liberal (8 seats), 17.3% New Democratic (4 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 40.4% Liberal (61 seats), 32.9% Conservative (40 seats), 22.2% New Democratic (18 seats), 4.3% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 47.9% New Democratic (61 seats), 24.6% Liberal (10 seats), 13.5% Conservative (4 seats), 11.1% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats), 2.4% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 44.3% Liberal (21 seats), 27.7% New Democratic (6 seats), 21.6% Conservative (5 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Total: 31.7% Liberal (111 seats), 30.9% Conservative (116 seats), 30.1% New Democratic (105 seats), 4% Green (3 seats), 2.8% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will keep their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

Despite the slight widening of the numbers, the gap between the parties has definitely shrunk. The Conservatives remain in first with a decline of 3 seats, the Liberals and Greens lost one seat each, and the NDP has reaped these losses with a gain of 5.

In this particular situation, to peg the NDP as a kingmaker would not be plausible. Four NDP pickups from the Liberals in by-elections would reverse the order of the two parties, which is not an implausible occurrence. If things remain this tight, then we may see Canada plunge into an election again very soon.

There are some hopeful signs for a solid NDP plurality, though – they are rebounding in British Columbia, Atlantic Canada, and Ontario – all areas that the Liberals were gaining in. The Liberals must keep a watchful eye if they wish to keep these areas under their lock and key. In addition, the Conservatives must regain their lead in Ontario if they are to have any hope of a significant plurality.

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Seat Projection: Nanos Poll, September 11, 2015

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