Seat Projection: Prince Edward Island CRA Poll, September 10, 2015

Corporate Research Associates is back with its quarterly polls on Atlantic Canadian politics. The landscape has taken an interesting turn for Prince Edward Island – previously a 2 party system, now 4 parties are in the running. Last quarter, the governing Liberals had 40%, the Progressive Conservatives had 24%, the New Democrats had 19%, and the Greens had 17%. This quarter, the Liberals’ numbers have improved to 46%, while the Progressive Conservatives, NDP, and Greens all declined to 22%, 18%, and 14%, respectively.

I will admit one caveat here – CRA released no regional data, so the seat projection is not as accurate as if they did release it.

Last Quarter’s Seat Projection:
16 Liberal
6 Progressive Conservative
3 New Democratic
2 Green

This Quarter’s Seat Projection:
21 Liberal
3 Progressive Conservative
2 New Democratic
1 Green

These small shifts in the opposition parties’ numbers have significantly benefitted the Liberals. If an election were to be held now, they would increase their majority, an incredible feat for a government that has been in power for almost a decade. It would also put the NDP on the map, who failed to win a seat despite getting 10% of the vote.

The Greens are a party to look out for in PEI. Despite only having 14% support as a party, party leader Peter Bevan-Baker has 30% support as the best to be premier, narrowly beating out current Liberal premier Wade MacLauchlin, who is at 29%. It remains to be seen whether this will translate into seats, but it all hinges on one question: Will PEI voters vote based on the performance of their MP, as they have historically, or will they break with the old model and vote based on party leader? Only time will tell.

Seat Projection: Prince Edward Island CRA Poll, September 10, 2015

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