Seat Projection: New Brunswick CRA Poll, September 10, 2015

Corporate Research Associates has published the results of its quarterly polls on Atlantic Canadian politics. Last year, the Liberals won 27 seats, defeating the Progressive Conservative government, which got 21 seats, and the Greens got their first MLA in party leader Peter Coon.

Last quarter, the Liberals had 38% support, the Progressive Conservatives had 28%, the NDP had 23%, the Greens had 11%, and the People’s Alliance had 1%.

This quarter, the Liberals have 36% support, the Progressive Conservatives have 28%, the NDP had 25%, the Greens have 10%, and the People’s Alliance has 2%.

Before the projection, I would like to put a caveat on the following numbers: since CRA did not release regional data, this projection is not as accurate as if they had.

Here is last quarter’s numbers with my model:
29 Liberal
9 Progressive Conservative
8 New Democratic
3 Green
0 People’s Alliance

Here is this quarter’s numbers with my model:
28 Liberal
11 Progressive Conservative
8 New Democratic
2 Green
0 People’s Alliance

There has not been much movement for the Liberals since the election. However, there has been a definite trend away from the PC’s and towards the NDP. Whether this trend continues remains to be seen.

Another phenomenon that may change the numbers is Brian Gallant’s low approval ratings. While nobody else has reaped the rewards, this has led to a third of voters remaining undecided. This is truly any party’s game right now.

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Seat Projection: New Brunswick CRA Poll, September 10, 2015

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