Seat Projection: Nanos Poll, September 10, 2015

Yesterday, Nanos had the Liberals at 32.1%, the NDP at 30.6%, the Conservatives at 28.6%, the Greens at 4.8%, and the Bloc Quebecois at 3.6%. This showed the NDP and Liberals stagnating with a Conservative upswing, albeit a small one.

In today’s poll, there has again been a small shift, but it changes the order of the parties, and in that, it’s monumental. The Liberals are still in the lead with 30.9%, but only by a hair. The Conservatives are in second with 30.8%, and the NDP is at 29.9%. The Greens are at 4.6%, and the Bloc Quebecois is at 3.2%.

Yesterday, my model projected to have the Liberals with 117 seats, the Conservatives with 109, the NDP with 104, and the Greens and Bloc with 4 each.

Here is today’s projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 31.3% New Democratic (13 seats), 30.3% Conservative (15 seats), 29.1% Liberal (12 seats), 9% Green (2 seats)
Prairies: 54.5% Conservative (53 seats), 21.9% Liberal (5 seats), 18.3% New Democratic (4 seats), 3.3% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 41.4% Liberal (66 seats), 33.7% Conservative (41 seats), 20.5% New Democratic (12 seats), 4.5% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 49.6% New Democratic (64 seats), 21.2% Liberal (8 seats), 13.1% Conservative (3 seats), 12.5% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats), 2.8% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 43.9% Liberal (21 seats), 28.9% New Democratic (6 seats), 21.5% Conservative (5 seats), 5.7% Green (0 seats)
Total: 30.9% Liberal (112 seats), 30.8% Conservative (119 seats), 29.9% New Democratic (100 seats), 4.6% Green (4 seats), 3.2% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will keep their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

So there haven’t been monumental shifts in the seat count, but again, they have changed order. The Conservatives have a plurality with 119 seats, and the Liberals are in a close second with 112. The NDP has kingmaker status with 100 seats, with them likely entering into coalition with the Liberals. The Greens remain at 4 seats, while the Bloc drops 1 to 3.

However, there are curious things happening with the electoral battleground. The Conservatives have 45% of their projected seats in the Prairies, with flagging support in all other areas. This makes their road for a majority hard, but a plurality possible. The Liberals have 59% of their projected seat count in Ontario, leaving them vulnerable to an NDP or Conservative upswing. The NDP has 64% of its seats in Quebec, with flagging support elsewhere. They will almost definitely keep Quebec this election cycle, so it’s a matter of staging a resurgence in British Columbia and Ontario.

Seat Projection: Nanos Poll, September 10, 2015

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