Seat Projection: Forum Poll, September 10, 2015

Forum has been somewhat of an anomaly among pollsters in that it has long put the NDP in a strong lead, and the Liberals in second. However, other pollsters have since backed this trend up – and documented a new one. Nanos, for instance, has shown a very tight three-way race between the Liberals, Conservatives, and NDP with the NDP and Liberals flagging and the Conservatives rising.

However, in this week’s Forum poll, the NDP remain at 36%, exactly where they were last week. The Liberals fell 3 points to 29%, and the Conservatives rose 4 points to 28%. This strong NDP lead is in stark contrast to Nanos.

Last week’s Forum poll had me projecting the NDP to have 143 seats, the Liberals 129, the Conservatives 59, the Bloc Quebecois 5, and the Greens 2.

Here is this week’s numbers using my model*:
British Columbia: 37% New Democratic (22 seats), 28% Conservative (12 seats), 27% Liberal (8 seats), 7% Green (0 seats)
Alberta: 43% Conservative (22 seats), 28% New Democratic (6 seats), 25% Liberal (6 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 35% Conservative (12 seats), 34% New Democratic (10 seats), 27% Liberal (6 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 34% New Democratic (41 seats), 31% Conservative (40 seats), 31% Liberal (38 seats), 4% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 45% New Democratic (58 seats), 22% Conservative (9 seats), 21% Liberal (8 seats), 10% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 53% Liberal (25 seats), 26% New Democratic (4 seats), 18% Conservative (3 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Total: 36% New Democratic (142 seats), 29% Liberal (91 seats), 28% Conservative (100 seats), 3% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats), 3% Green (2 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I am going to keep their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

The NDP has not had much projected movement, only losing 1 seat to have 142. However, the Conservatives have gained a whopping 41 seats from last projection, and the Liberals lost 38. The Bloc Quebecois lost 2. Despite different numbers, this predicts a similar trend – a stagnant NDP, a Liberal decline after a brief resurgence, and a Conservative resurgence. This election is definitely in flux here, and there’s no telling where the dust will settle.

Seat Projection: Forum Poll, September 10, 2015

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