Seat Projection: Nova Scotia CRA Poll, September 9, 2015

Corporate Research Associates (CRA) has released their quarterly poll regarding Atlantic Canadian politics. In Nova Scotia, it appears that the dynamic between the parties last quarter is the same as this quarter.

Last quarter, the Liberals had 50%, the New Democrats had 27%, the Progressive Conservatives had 19%, the Greens had 3%.

Now, the Liberals remain the same with 50%, the NDP has bumped up one point to 28%, the Progressive Conservatives bumped up one point to 20%, and the Greens decreased one point to 2%.

I would like to put a caveat here about the seat projections – since I do not have regional data as CRA has not released it, the projection is not as accurate as it would be with regional data.

Last quarter’s seat projection using my model (change from 2013 in parentheses):
41 Liberal (+8)
7 New Democratic (=)
3 Progressive Conservative (-8)
0 Green

This quarter’s seat projection using my model (change from 2013 in parentheses):
41 Liberal (+8)
7 New Democratic (=)
3 Progressive Conservative (-8)
0 Green

So the numbers are identical. but they show significant movement since 2013. The NDP has the same amount of support as it did in 2013, and is projected to get the same number of seats. However, this would put them in Official Opposition status now because of the drop in support for the Progressive Conservatives. This drop in support appears to have gone to the Liberals.

It appears, for now, that the Liberals are riding high and will continue to do so for a while. It would take a significant change for the NDP and PC’s to be able to overtake the Liberals.

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Seat Projection: Nova Scotia CRA Poll, September 9, 2015

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