Seat Projection: Newfoundland and Labrador CRA Poll, September 9, 2015

Corporate Research Associates has published their quarterly polls on Atlantic Canada. Last quarter in Newfoundland and Labrador, the Liberals had 50%, the Progressive Conservatives had 27%, the New Democrats had 22%, and the Greens had 1%.

There has not been much movement in the latest poll, where the Liberals have 48%, the Progressive Conservatives have 27%, the NDP has 25%, and the Greens have 1%. It seems that the Liberal vote has simply gone in a slight amount to the NDP, with the other parties staying put.

I would like to put a caveat on the seat projection here: CRA has not put any regional data into the poll, so the seat projection is not as accurate as if it were there.

Last quarter’s poll findings using my model (change from 2011 in parentheses):
34 Liberal (+28)
9 Progressive Conservative (-28)
5 New Democratic (=)
0 Green (=)

This quarter’s poll findings using my model (change from 2011 in parentheses):
33 Liberal (+27)
9 Progressive Conservative (-28)
6 New Democratic +1)

So there hasn’t been much movement between quarters, but tons of movement since 2011. The Liberals and Progressive Conservatives have inverted their positions, and the NDP has largely remained the same since 2011. Once the campaign kicks off, however, there will surely be at least a little more volatility in the party standings.

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Seat Projection: Newfoundland and Labrador CRA Poll, September 9, 2015

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