Seat Projection: Nanos Poll, September 9, 2015

The election is in full swing, and Nanos is now publishing polls daily. It came to a very interesting finding yesterday – the Liberals were in the lead. Today, their findings are the same – a Liberal lead, but the numbers are slightly different. The Liberals are down 0.4% to 32.1%, the NDP is down 0.6% points to 30.6%, and the Conservatives have reaped the benefits and gained 2.7% to now have 28.6%. The Greens decreased 1.3 points to 4.8%, and the Bloc has 3.6%, a decrease of 0.1 points.

Yesterday, the Liberals were projected to have 122 seats, the NDP 114, the Conservatives 92, the Greens 6, and the Bloc Quebecois 4.

Here is today’s projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 32.7% Liberal (16 seats), 31.5% New Democratic (13 seats), 23.6% Conservative (10 seats), 12.1% Green (3 seats)
Prairies: 47% Conservative (47 seats), 24.8% New Democratic (8 seats), 22.3% Liberal (7 seats), 4.5% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 42.6% Liberal (66 seats), 34.3% Conservative (42 seats), 20.1% New Democratic (12 seats), 3.1% Green (1 seat)
Quebec: 50.2% New Democratic (66 seats), 19.2% Liberal (5 seats), 14% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats), 13.3% Conservative (3 seats), 2.6% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 50.5% Liberal (23 seats), 22.9% Conservative (5 seats), 21.9% New Democratic (4 seats), 4.8% Green (0 seats)
Total: 32.1% Liberal (117 seats), 30.6% New Democratic (104 seats), 28.6% Conservative (109 seats), 4.8% Green (4 seats), 3.6% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will keep their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

So there is not much movement in the vote, but significant amounts of movement in seat distribution. The Liberals have lost 5 seats, and the NDP has lost 10, and the Greens have lost 2, all at the national level seemingly gained by the Conservatives, who have increased to 17 and have jumped back to second in the seat count.

These findings, if they hold, should send huge warning bells to the NDP: the Liberals are now beating them by a hair in their longtime stronghold, British Columbia, and they are becoming the alternative to the Conservatives in Ontario. This is what the Liberals needed to do to win, and they are succeeding. The NDP will always be strong in Quebec, complicating matters somewhat for the Liberals, but this is their road to a plurality.

The Conservatives may also be bouncing back. It’s too early to tell, since this small jump is easily within the margin of error, but it’s possible that they might be bouncing back from their nadir. There is a month and a half left in this electoral cycle, and as this volatile time has shown, anything can happen.

Seat Projection: Nanos Poll, September 9, 2015

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