Seat Projections: Nanos polls, September 6 and September 8, 2015

Within the last couple of days, Nanos has come out with two polls – both showing significant trends. In the September 6 poll, for the first time, the NDP has been projected to lead by a significant margin. In the September 8 poll, the Liberals have led in a poll for the first time in months.

Last time around, despite being third in the popular vote, the Conservatives had a plurality with 120 seats. The NDP and Liberals followed with 107 and 97, respectively, also showing a three-way race, like Ipsos Reid. the Greens and Bloc were projected to have 7 seats each.

Here is the September 6 poll projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 38.7% New Democratic (24 seats), 28.2% Liberal (8 seats), 20.3% Conservative (7 seats), 12.8% Green (3 seats)
Prairies: 42.5% Conservative (42 seats), 28.3% New Democratic (12 seats), 22% Liberal (7 seats), 5.4% Green (1 seat)
Ontario: 38.2% Liberal (60 seats), 32.1% Conservative (39 seats), 24.8% New Democratic (20 seats), 4.9% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 45.5% New Democratic (62 seats), 22.2% Liberal (9 seats), 15.5% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats), 11.9% Conservative (3 seats), 4.6% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 49.5% Liberal (24 seats), 26.3% New Democratic (4 seats), 19.6% Conservative (4 seats), 3.9% Green (0 seats)
Total: 32.7% New Democratic (123 seats), 30.8% Liberal (108 seats), 26.2% Conservative (97 seats), 6% Green (6 seats), 3.7% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats)

Here is the September 8 poll projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 36.2% New Democratic (19 seats), 32.6% Liberal (14 seats), 17.5% Conservative (6 seats), 13.7% Green (3 seats)
Prairies: 40.4% Conservative (37 seats), 28.4% New Democratic (14 seats), 23.4% Liberal (10 seats), 6.1% Green (1 seat)
Ontario: 43.2% Liberal (68 seats), 33.4% Conservative (40 seats), 17.9% New Democratic (11 seats), 5.5% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 47.9% New Democratic (63 seats), 20.6% Liberal (8 seats), 14.9% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats), 12.8% Conservative (3 seats), 3.1% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 47.2% Liberal (22 seats), 28.1% New Democratic (6 seats), 19.6% Conservative (4 seats), 4.5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 32.5% Liberal (122 seats), 31.2% New Democratic (114 seats), 25.9% Conservative (92 seats), 6.1% Green (6 seats), 3.7% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will keep their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

So what do the trends in these two polls say about the overall Canadian political climate? The NDP is stagnating, the Conservatives are declining, and the Liberals are reaping the benefits. The Liberals even have a projected plurality.

This is a fundamental shift in the dynamic that this electoral race has had since the beginning. Before, it was a fight between the Conservatives and NDP with the Liberals as kingmaker. Now, it’s a fight between the Liberals and NDP with the Conservatives as kingmaker. With that in mind, the Conservatives represent a less known quantity than the Liberals – the Liberals and NDP have an external pressure to coalesce against the Conservatives, which will not happen if they’re the top two parties. The Conservatives, if they push any party over the top at all, will most likely enter into coalition or give confidence and supply to the party they hate less. It is difficult to tell who they hate more – their old Liberal rivals or the socialist boogeyman NDP. Only time will tell.

Seat Projections: Nanos polls, September 6 and September 8, 2015

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