Seat Projection: Ipsos Reid Poll, September 6, 2015

Last week, Ipsos Reid was showing a particularly interesting shift in the race: since the election was called, the Conservatives and NDP were the two parties in the running with the Liberals in a close third, but still likely to only have kingmaker status. However, that poll showed a true three-way race. This week’s poll shows that the NDP has gained one point to now have 34%, and the Liberals and Conservatives remain at 30 and 29%, respectively.

In last week’s Ipsos Reid poll, the NDP was projected to have a plurality with 120 seats, the Conservatives in second with 106, the Liberals in a very close third with 101, and the Bloc and Greens trailing with 6 and 4, respectively.

Here is this week’s projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 37% New Democratic (20 seats), 31% Liberal (10 seats), 28% Conservative (12 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Alberta: 45% Conservative (23 seats), 35% New Democratic (8 seats), 17% Liberal (3 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 46% Conservative (21 seats), 25% Liberal (4 seats), 21% New Democratic (3 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 36% Liberal (44 seats), 35% Conservative (50 seats), 28% New Democratic (27 seats), 1% Green (0 seats)
Quebec: 47% New Democratic (62 seats), 20% Liberal (8 seats), 15% Conservative (4 seats), 14% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 57% Liberal (27 seats), 29% New Democratic (5 seats), 8% Conservative (0 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Total: 34% New Democratic (126 seats), 30% Liberal (96 seats), 29% Conservative (112 seats), 3% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will keep their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

So there is not much movement here – the NDP gains 6 seats to now have 126, the Conservatives gain 7 seats to get 12, and the Liberals drop 5 seats to 96. The Bloc Quebecois drops 2 seats to 4, and the Greens get shut out (though I believe that regardless of what these numbers say, Elizabeth May will retain her seat).

However, there is an interesting development – the Liberals have been in second in opinion polls rather than the Conservatives for a long time now – even if by miniscule amounts. There are developments worth close examination.

Seat Projection: Ipsos Reid Poll, September 6, 2015

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