Seat Projection: Leger Marketing Poll, September 2, 2015

Last time Leger Marketing was in the field, they had the NDP at 33%, the Liberals at 28%, the Conservatives at 27%, the Greens at 6%, and the Bloc Quebecois at 5%. According to this week’s poll, the race has tightened up. The NDP, Liberals, and Conservatives are locked in a virtual tie at 31%, 30%, and 28%, respectively. However, the fact that the Liberals are ahead of the Conservatives is curious given Forum’s numbers this week. The Greens and Bloc have decreased one point each to 5% and 4%, respectively.

Last time Leger was in the field, the NDP was projected to have 126 seats, the Conservatives 105, the Liberals 89, the Bloc Quebecois 11 and the Greens 7.

Here is this week’s numbers*:
British Columbia: 35% Liberal (22 seats), 30% New Democratic (10 seats), 25% Conservative (8 seats), 11% Green (2 seats)
Alberta: 56% Conservative (30 seats), 18% New Democratic (2 seats), 18% Liberal (2 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 43% Conservative (17 seats), 34% Liberal (8 seats), 19% New Democratic (3 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 37% Liberal (63 seats), 28% Conservative (34 seats), 27% New Democratic (22 seats), 6% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 46% New Democratic (60 seats), 20% Liberal (8 seats), 18% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats), 13% Conservative (3 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 37% Liberal (17 seats), 31% New Democratic (8 seats), 26% Conservative (7 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 31% New Democratic (106 seats), 30% Liberal (120 seats), 28% Conservative (101 seats), 5% Green (4 seats), 4% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats)

Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will leave their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

For the first time in almost a year, the Liberals are projected to have a plurality with 120 seats. However, the NDP with 106 seats and the Conservatives with 101 seats are still in the running. In fact, the Conservatives are so close to the Liberals and NDP in seat total that they should not even be considered a kingmaker. If their numbers go down, then they possibly have kingmaker status. The Bloc slips 4 seats to 7, further from Official Party Status, and the Greens slip from 7 to 4.

The most major trend these results show is the supplanting of the NDP by the Liberals as the alternative to Harper, that polls show to varying degrees of completion. Is this a trend that will stick? Only time will tell. With the resetting of the field that this week has shown, nothing is permanent.

Seat Projection: Leger Marketing Poll, September 2, 2015

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